Table A.X:
Observed Population Diversity and Conflict across Ethnic Homelands – Robustness to Accounting for Spatial Dependence
| Log conflict prevalence |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | |
| OLS | OLS | OLS | OLS | OLS | OLS | OLS | |
| Observed population diversity | 31.788*** (8.819) | 41.070*** (8.392) | 37.111*** (8.261) | 37.333*** (8.203) | 37.148*** (8.222) | 41.745*** (8.428) | 41.403*** (8.439) |
| Ethnolinguistic fractionalization | 0.881* (0.504) | 0.804 (0.497) | |||||
| Ethnolinguistic polarization | 0.593 (0.426) | 0.562 (0.417) | |||||
| Regional dummies | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Geographical controls | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Climatic controls | No | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Development outcomes | No | No | No | No | No | Yes | Yes |
| Disease environment controls | No | No | No | No | No | Yes | Yes |
|
| |||||||
| Sample | Observed | Observed | Observed | Observed | Observed | Observed | Observed |
| Direct impact of genetic diversity | 32.803*** (9.165) | 43.792*** (9.362) | 38.509*** (8.756) | 38.722*** (8.691) | 38.550*** (8.717) | 43.734*** (9.165) | 43.391*** (9.180) |
| Direct effect of 10th-90th %ile move in diversity | 0.513*** (0.143) | 0.685*** (0.146) | 0.602*** (0.137) | 0.605*** (0.136) | 0.603*** (0.136) | 0.684*** (0.143) | 0.678*** (0.144) |
| Observations | 207 | 207 | 207 | 207 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
Notes: This table exploits variations across ethnic homelands to establish a significant positive reduced-form impact of contemporary population diversity on the log conflict prevalence during the 1989–2008 period, conditional on the baseline control variables (i.e., proximate geographical and development-related correlates of conflict) and accounting for spatial dependence using a spatial autoregressive (SARAR(1,1)) model, with a spectral-normalized inverse-distance weighting matrix, estimated with maximum-likelihood estimation, with a spatial lag of the dependent variable and a spatially lagged error. The model treat errors as heteroskedastic. Variables relating to observations associated with the same homeland polygon are averaged and a single observation is kept for each polygon. The set of continent and regional dummies includes indicators for Europe, Asia, North America, South America, Oceania, North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Additional climatic covariates refer to the average diurnal temperature range, average cloud cover, and average temperature range in the homeland. The estimated effect associated with increasing population diversity from the tenth to the ninetieth percentile of its distribution is expressed in terms of the change in the prevalence of conflicts within the territory of a homeland over the years 1989–2008. Standard errors are reported in parentheses.
denotes statistical significance at the 1 percent level,
at the 5 percent level, and
at the 10 percent level.