Table III:
Population Diversity and Intra-group Conflict
| Cross-country sample: | Old World |
Global |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
| PANEL A | OLS | OLS | OLS | 2SLS | 2SLS | 2SLS |
| Share of AMAR group-years with intra-group conflict, 1985–2006 |
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| Population diversity (ancestry adjusted) | 4.456** (1.692) | 4.267** (1.711) | 3.580** (1.694) | 5.728*** (1.761) | 5.606*** (1.879) | 5.124*** (1.894) |
| Continent dummies | × | × | × | × | × | × |
| Controls for geography | × | × | × | × | × | × |
| Controls for ethnic diversity | × | × | × | × | ||
| Controls for institutions | × | × | × | × | ||
| Controls for oil, population, and income | × | × | × | × | ||
| Controls for number/share of AMAR groups | × | × | ||||
|
| ||||||
| Observations | 91 | 91 | 91 | 115 | 115 | 115 |
| Partial R2 of population diversity | 0.079 | 0.068 | 0.051 | |||
| Adjusted R2 | 0.092 | 0.187 | 0.231 | |||
| Effect of 10th–90th %ile move in diversity | 0.218*** (0.083) | 0.209** (0.084) | 0.175** (0.083) | 0.392*** (0.121) | 0.384*** (0.129) | 0.351*** (0.130) |
|
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| FIRST STAGE | Population diversity (ancestry adjusted) |
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| Migratory distance from East Africa (in 10,000 km) | −0.061*** (0.007) | −0.057*** (0.008) | −0.057*** (0.008) | |||
| First-stage F statistic | 83.366 | 47.887 | 47.107 | |||
|
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| PANEL B | Probit | Probit | Probit | IV Probit | IV Probit | IV Probit |
|
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| Annual AMAR intra-group conflict incidence, 1985–2006 |
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| Population diversity (ancestry adjusted) | 25.350*** (9.336) | 37.535*** (9.792) | 31.687*** (10.547) | 31.929*** (7.335) | 40.579*** (7.261) | 38.375*** (7.973) |
| Controls as in same column of Panel A | × | × | × | × | × | × |
| Time dummies | × | × | × | × | × | × |
|
| ||||||
| Observations | 1,658 | 1,658 | 1,658 | 2,179 | 2,179 | 2,179 |
| Countries | 90 | 90 | 90 | 114 | 114 | 114 |
| Pseudo R2 | 0.207 | 0.338 | 0.390 | |||
| Marginal effect of diversity | 7.378*** (2.528) | 9.107*** (2.301) | 7.067*** (2.428) | 8.717*** (1.992) | 10.318*** (2.008) | 9.402*** (2.212) |
|
| ||||||
| FIRST STAGE | Population diversity (ancestry adjusted) |
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| Migratory distance from East Africa (in 10,000 km) | −0.061*** (0.007) | −0.060*** (0.007) | −0.060*** (0.007) | |||
| First-stage F statistic | 74.527 | 66.911 | 66.939 | |||
Notes: This table exploits variations across countries and years to establish a significant positive reduced-form impact of contemporary population diversity on (i) the share of group-years of a country during the 1985–2006 time period in which an “all minorities at risk” (AMAR) ethnic group of the country experienced an intra-group conflict (Panel A); and (ii) the likelihood of observing the incidence of an intra-group conflict across a country’s AMAR ethnic groups in any given year during the 1985–2006 time period (Panel B), conditional on ethnic diversity measures, the proximate geographical, institutional, and development-related correlates of conflict, and measures capturing the number and total share of AMAR groups in the national population. The controls for geography include absolute latitude, ruggedness, distance to the nearest waterway, the mean and range of agricultural suitability, the mean and range of elevation, and an indicator for small island nations. The controls for ethnic diversity include ethnic fractionalization and polarization. The controls for institutions include a set of legal origin dummies, comprising two indicators for British and French legal origins, as well as six time-dependent covariates, comprising the degree of executive constraints, two indicators for the type of political regime (democracy and autocracy), and three indicators for experience as a colony of the U.K., France, and any other major colonizing power. The control for oil presence is a time-invariant indicator for the discovery of a petroleum (oil or gas) reserve by the year 2003. The controls for population and income are the time-dependent log-transformed values of total population and GDP per capita. In Panel A, all time-dependent covariates assume their average annual values over the entire 1985–2006 time period, whereas in Panel B, they assume their annual values from the previous year. For regressions based on the global sample, the set of continent dummies includes five indicators for Africa, Asia, North America, South America, and Oceania, whereas for regressions based on the Old-World sample, the set includes two indicators for Africa and Asia. The 2SLS and IV probit regressions exploit prehistoric migratory distance from East Africa to the indigenous (precolonial) population of a country as an excluded instrument for the country’s contemporary population diversity. In Panel A, the estimated effect associated with increasing population diversity from the tenth to the ninetieth percentile of its cross-country distribution is expressed in terms of the share of group-years of a country in which an intra-group conflict was experienced by an AMAR ethnic group. In Panel B, the estimated marginal effect of a 1 percentage point increase in population diversity is the average marginal effect across the entire cross-section of observed diversity values, and it reflects the percentage-point increase in the annual likelihood of an intra-group conflict incidence. Heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (clustered at the country level in Panel B) are reported in parentheses.
denotes statistical significance at the 1 percent level,
at the 5 percent level, and
at the 10 percent level.