Table VI:
Predicted Population Diversity and Conflict across Ethnic Homelands
| Log conflict prevalence |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | |
| OLS | OLS | OLS | OLS | OLS | OLS | 2SLS | |
| Predicted population diversity | 77.710*** (6.279) | 77.031*** (7.282) | 74.010*** (7.396) | 73.581*** (7.418) | 81.354*** (9.623) | 80.889*** (9.735) | |
| Observed population diversity | 129.610*** (32.407) | ||||||
| Ethnolinguistic fractionalization | 0.347 (0.299) | 0.200 (0.356) | |||||
| Ethnolinguistic polarization | 0.457* (0.263) | 0.629** (0.311) | |||||
| Regional dummies | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Geographical controls | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Climatic controls | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Development outcomes | No | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No |
| Disease environment controls | No | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No |
|
| |||||||
| Sample | Predicted | Predicted | Predicted | Predicted | Old World | Old World | Observed |
| Observations | 901 | 901 | 901 | 901 | 697 | 697 | 207 |
| Effect of 10th-90th %ile move in diversity | 1.725*** (0.139) | 1.710*** (0.162) | 1.643*** (0.164) | 1.633*** (0.165) | 1.019*** (0.120) | 1.013*** (0.122) | 2.027*** (0.507) |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.211 | 0.362 | 0.378 | 0.379 | 0.401 | 0.404 | |
| β * | 76.546 | 71.535 | 70.829 | 73.903 | 73.187 | ||
|
| |||||||
| Migratory distance from East Africa (in 10,000 km) | −0.044*** (0.009) | ||||||
| First-stage F -statistic | 26.185 | ||||||
Notes: This table exploits variations across ethnic homelands to establish a significant positive impact of predicted population diversity, based on prehistoric migratory distance from East Africa, on the log prevalence of conflict during the 1989–2008 period, conditional on the potentially confounding effects of geographic, climatic, and development-related characteristics, as well as the disease environment. World-region fixed effects include Europe, Asia, North America, South America, Oceania, North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Geographical controls are absolute latitude, ruggedness, mean and range of elevation, and mean and range of land suitability, distance from waterway, and an island dummy. Climatic controls are the mean levels of temperature and precipitation. Development outcomes are time since settlement, presence of oil and gas, and log luminosity. The disease environment control is malaria endemicity. The estimated effect associated with increasing population diversity from the tenth to the ninetieth percentile of its distribution is expressed in terms of the change in the prevalence of conflicts within the territory of a homeland over the years 1989–2008. The 2SLS regression exploits prehistoric migratory distance from East Africa to each ethnic homeland as an excluded instrument for the observed population diversity of the ethnic group. The β* statistic is the estimated effect of population diversity, if selection on observables and unobservables are of equal proportions, and the maximal R2 is equal to 1.3 times the observed R2 (Oster, 2019). Heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors are reported in parentheses.
denotes statistical significance at the 1 percent level,
at the 5 percent level, and
at the 10 percent level.