Table A.II:

Population Diversity and the Count of Civil Conflict Onsets across Countries

Cross-country sample:	Global					Old World		Global
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)
	Negative	Negative	Negative	Negative	Negative	Negative	Negative
	Binomial	Binomial	Binomial	Binomial	Binomial	Binomial	Binomial	Poisson	Poisson
	Total count of new PRIO25 civil conflict onsets, 1960–2017
Population diversity (ancestry adjusted)	10.032*** (3.878)	19.339*** (3.559)	13.092** (5.238)	14.180*** (5.232)	12.884*** (4.674)	17.968*** (6.045)	18.025*** (5.358)	13.592** (5.512)	12.884*** (4.674)
Continent dummies			×	×	×	×	×	×	×
Controls for geography		×	×	×	×	×	×	×	×
Controls for ethnic diversity				×	×		×		×
Controls for institutions					×		×		×
Controls for oil, population, and income					×		×		×
Observations	150	150	150	150	147	123	121	150	147
Pseudo R2	0.013	0.128	0.153	0.158	0.257	0.149	0.276	0.219	0.317
Marginal effect of diversity	0.114** (0.046)	0.220*** (0.051)	0.149** (0.064)	0.162** (0.065)	0.147** (0.058)	0.231*** (0.086)	0.231*** (0.075)	0.155** (0.068)	0.147** (0.058)

Notes: This table conducts a robustness check on the results from the baseline cross-country analysis of the reduced-form impact of contemporary population diversity on civil conflict onsets, as shown in Table. Specifically, it establishes robustness to considering the total count rather than the annual frequency of civil conflict onsets over the post-1960 time period as the outcome variable. In line with the standard for analyzing over-dispersed count data, the regressions are estimated using the negative-binomial as opposed to a least-squares estimator. Given the absence of a negative-binomial estimator that permits instrumentation, however, the current analysis is unable to implement the strategy of exploiting prehistoric migratory distance from East Africa to the indigenous (precolonial) population of a country as an excluded instrument for the country’s contemporary population diversity. Thus, in lieu of implementing the instrument-based identification strategy in the global sample of countries, Columns 8–9 examine robustness to employing the Poisson rather than the negative-binomial estimator for estimating the specifications from Columns 6–7, respectively. The specifications examined in this table are otherwise identical to corresponding OLS specifications reported in Table I. The reader is therefore referred to Table I and the corresponding table notes for additional details on the baseline set of covariates considered by the current analysis. The estimated marginal effect of a 1 percentage point increase in population diversity is the average marginal effect across the entire cross-section of observed diversity values, and it reflects the increase in the total number of new conflict onsets over the post-1960 time period. Heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors are reported in parentheses.

^***denotes statistical significance at the 1 percent level,

^**at the 5 percent level, and

^*at the 10 percent level.