Table A.III:

Population Diversity and the Frequency of Civil Conflict Onset across Countries – Robustness to Accounting for Spatial Dependence

Cross-country sample:	Global					Old World		Global
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)
	SARAR	SARAR	SARAR	SARAR	SARAR	SARAR	SARAR	SARAR	SARAR
	OLS	OLS	OLS	OLS	OLS	OLS	OLS	2SLS	2SLS
		Log number of new PRIO25 civil conflict onsets per year, 1960–2017
Population diversity (ancestry adjusted)	0.253** (0.099)	0.447*** (0.109)	0.320*** (0.120)	0.329*** (0.121)	0.288** (0.130)	0.717*** (0.251)	0.643*** (0.223)	0.602*** (0.219)	0.457*** (0.175)
Spatial lag AR(1) of conflict (λ)	−0.633 (1.078)	−0.164 (0.750)	−0.226 (0.750)	−0.214 (0.729)	0.362 (0.761)	−1.123 (0.833)	−0.199 (0.772)	−0.851 (0.849)	0.317 (0.748)
Spatial lag AR(1) of error (ρ)	0.177 (0.814)	0.579 (0.846)	0.629 (0.840)	0.328 (0.842)	0.470 (0.798)	1.103 (0.817)	0.963 (0.669)	1.115 (0.821)	0.346 (0.744)
Continent dummies			×	×	×	×	×	×	×
Controls for geography		×	×	×	×	×	×	×	×
Controls for ethnic diversity				×	×		×	×
Controls for institutions					×		×	×
Controls for oil, population, and income					×		×
Observations	150	150	150	150	147	123	121	150	147
Effect of 10th–90th %ile move in diversity	0.017** (0.007)	0.030*** (0.007)	0.021*** (0.008)	0.022*** (0.008)	0.020** (0.009)	0.035*** (0.012)	0.028*** (0.010)	0.040*** (0.015)	0.031*** (0.012)

Notes: This table conducts a robustness check on the results from the baseline cross-country analysis of the reduced-form impact of contemporary population diversity on the annual frequency of civil conflict onsets, as shown in Table. Specifically, it establishes robustness to accounting for spatial dependence across observations by estimating spatial-autoregressive models with spatial-autoregressive disturbances (SARAR(1,1)) using a generalized spatial two-stage least-squares (GS2SLS) estimator (e.g., Drukker et al., 2013). To perform this robustness check, which involves the estimation of the AR(1) coefficients, λ and ρ, respectively associated with the spatial lags in the outcome variable and the error term, the estimator exploits an inverse-distance spatial weighting matrix for the regression sample, based on the great-circle distances between the geodesic centroids of country pairs. The specifications examined in this table are otherwise identical to corresponding ones reported in Table I. The reader is therefore referred to Table I and the corresponding table notes for additional details on the baseline set of covariates considered by the current analysis as well as the identification strategy employed by the 2SLS regressions in the last two columns. The estimated effect associated with increasing population diversity from the tenth to the ninetieth percentile of its cross-country distribution is expressed in terms of the number of new conflict onsets per year. Heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors are reported in parentheses.

^***denotes statistical significance at the 1 percent level,

^**at the 5 percent level, and

^*at the 10 percent level.