Table A.VIII:
Population Diversity and the Number of Conflicts across Ethnic Homelands
| Number of conflict events |
||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | |
| Poisson | Poisson | Poisson | Poisson | Poisson | Poisson | Poisson | Poisson | |
| Observed population diversity | 58.949*** (18.286) | 54.959*** (18.020) | 63.413*** (16.750) | 61.608*** (16.685) | ||||
| Predicted population diversity | 53.230*** (9.061) | 43.748*** (6.670) | 49.242*** (7.403) | 51.593*** (7.799) | ||||
| Ethnolinguistic fractionalization | 0.236 (0.498) | −0.784** (0.356) | ||||||
| Ethnolinguistic polarization | −0.190 (0.430) | −0.895** (0.441) | ||||||
| Regional dummies | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Geographical controls | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Climatic controls | No | No | Yes | Yes | No | No | Yes | Yes |
| Development outcomes | No | No | Yes | Yes | No | No | Yes | Yes |
| Disease environment controls | No | No | Yes | Yes | No | No | Yes | Yes |
|
| ||||||||
| Sample | Observed | Observed | Observed | Observed | Predicted | Predicted | Predicted | Predicted |
| Observations | 207 | 207 | 207 | 207 | 901 | 901 | 901 | 901 |
| PseudoR2 | 0.250 | 0.327 | 0.463 | 0.463 | 0.215 | 0.451 | 0.519 | 0.520 |
| Effect of 10th-90th %ile move in diversity | 61.225*** (22.925) | 57.081*** (21.677) | 65.859*** (21.558) | 63.985*** (21.168) | 60.379*** (15.693) | 49.623*** (10.515) | 55.855*** (11.546) | 58.521*** (12.213) |
Notes: This table exploits variations across ethnic homelands to establish a significant positive reduced-form impact of contemporary population diversity on the number of conflict events during the 1989–2008 period, conditional on the baseline control variables (i.e., proximate geographical and development-related correlates of conflict). The set of continent and regional dummies includes indicators for Europe, Asia, North America, South America, Oceania, North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Additional climatic covariates refer to the average diurnal temperature range, average cloud cover, and average temperature range in the homeland. The estimated effect associated with increasing population diversity from the tenth to the ninetieth percentile of its distribution is expressed in terms of the change in the number of conflict events. Heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors are reported in parentheses.
denotes statistical significance at the 1 percent level,
at the 5 percent level, and
at the 10 percent level.