Table 1. Selected simulation model parameter values and sources.
Parameter (notation) | Description | Values or distribution | Reference |
---|---|---|---|
β 1 | Transmission probability per contact of senior females | [0.006,0.02] | Estimated from parameter fitting |
Scale factor for β1, transmission probability relative to that of senior females (which means transmission probability per demo-group is ) | [0,1] | Estimated from COVID sex and age disaggregated data of [26] | |
β 2 | Proportion of infected agents that eventually show symptoms | 0.45 | [27] |
TA→I
TA→R |
Duration of asymptomatic period until symptoms start to show (if the next state is I), or until agents recover (if the next state is R) | If the next state is I, lognormal(1.63,0.52); If the next state is R, lognormal(2.23,0.22); Cut off at 21 days. |
[28],[29] |
τA | The day when an asymptomatic case become infectious | If the next state is I, 2 days before turning into I, or day 1; If the next state is R, day 3. | [30],[31],[29] |
β 3 | Proportion of symptomatic cases that result in death | [0,0.1] | [26] |
TI | Duration of symptomatic infection | lognormal(2.04,0.42); Cut off at 21 days. |
[32] |
Note: refer to the code and readme file on GitHub for a full list of parameters and their definitions and distributions.