Table 2. Cases and deaths during the projection period in simulated scenarios.

Scenario	Total Vaccines	Additional Vaccines	Cases		Averted cases			Averted cases (%)			Deaths		Averted Deaths			Averted Deaths (%)
			CAM	AAM	CAM vs baseline	AAM vs CAM	AAM vs baseline	CAM vs baseline	AAM vs CAM	AAM vs baseline	CAM	AAM	CAM vs baseline	AAM vs CAM	AAM vs baseline	CAM vs baseline	AAM vs CAM	AAM vs baseline
Baseline	18,678,746		24,363,731								468,945
Minimal 10% vaccination	19,794,450	1,115,704	23,898,862	23,339,854	464,869	559,008	1,023,877	1.9	2.3	4.2	458,208	444,766	10,737	13,443	24,180	2.3	2.9	5.2
Minimal 20% vaccination	21,992,586	3,313,840	23,692,424	20,949,427	671,307	2,742,997	3,414,304	2.8	11.3	14.0	452,256	399,597	16,690	52,659	69,348	3.6	11.2	14.8
Minimal 26% vaccination	23,678,994	5,000,248	22,911,520	19,590,241	1,452,211	3,321,279	4,773,490	6.0	13.6	19.6	443,314	367,591	25,632	75,723	101,354	5.5	16.1	21.6
Allocation per recent cases	23,678,994	5,000,248	22,911,520	17,773,307	1,452,211	5,138,213	6,590,424	6.0	21.1	27.1	443,314	322,316	25,632	120,998	146,629	5.5	25.8	31.3
Allocation per recent prevalence	23,678,994	5,000,248	22,911,520	17,749,574	1,452,211	5,161,947	6,614,158	6.0	21.2	27.1	443,314	323,609	25,632	119,705	145,337	5.5	25.5	31.0
Allocation per projected cases	23,678,994	5,000,248	22,911,520	15,159,537	1,452,211	7,751,983	9,204,194	6.0	31.8	37.8	443,314	277,856	25,632	165,458	191,089	5.5	35.3	40.7
Allocation per projected prevalence	23,678,994	5,000,248	22,911,520	16,106,303	1,452,211	6,805,218	8,257,429	6.0	27.9	33.9	443,314	298,914	25,632	144,400	170,032	5.5	30.8	36.3

CAM: current allocation method; AAM: alternative allocation method