Figure 7.

(a) Timeseries of modelled SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations where T₉₀ = 35 days at three locations in the Camel/Conwy rivers and estuaries; 50m (purple) and 7.5km (green) downstream of the largest loading source in each river, and at the estuary mouth (blue). Mean daily averages (dashed lines) and mean daily max and minimum values (solid lines enclosed by colour shading) are presented for locations where significant diurnal variations occur due to the tide (blue and green timeseries). For each timeseries the date of the maximum daily SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration is marked with a vertical coloured line and any dates where the concentration is greater than 95% of the max mean daily are highlighted with a colour block. Yellow vertical lines highlight the date of the peak of infections (29th March). Grey dash-dotted lines show what is assumed to be the minimum practicable detectable contraction (250 copies/l). See Table 2 for modelling details of the simulations 1–5. (b) Timeseries of discharge for each river (blue) and simulation surface elevation at the estuary mouth relative to the tidally average value for the study period (red). The dashed red line shows the mean daily surface elevation and the solid red bounding lines plot the daily max and minimum surface elevations.