Table 3.

Model results for total cost of global vaccination of low and lower-middle income countries (in billions US$), total deaths averted (in millions) and cost per death averted (US$)

	Two dose scenario	Three dose scenario
Total cost (US$, billion)	US$35.52	US$61.21
Total deaths averted (million)
Using reported COVID-19 deaths to calculate prior infection	2.14	2.40
Using excess mortality estimates to calculate prior infection (and 95% CI)*	1.32 (0.87 to 1.97)	1.50 (1.02 to 2.22)
Cost per death averted (US$)
Using reported COVID-19 deaths to calculate prior infection	US$16 700	US$25 500
Using excess mortality estimates to calculate prior infection (and 95% CI)*	US$26 900 ($18 000 to US$40,000)	US$40 800 (US$27 600 to US$59 900)

The model assumes an IFR for pre-Omicron COVID-19: 5/1000, IFR for Omicron: 1/1000, cost per dose US$7, natural immunity protection against mortality 80%, vaccine effectiveness against mortality with two doses: 80%, vaccine effectiveness against mortality with three doses: 90%

*95%1. 95% CI from excess mortality calculations from The Economist11