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. 2022 Sep 2;71(35):1131–1135. doi: 10.15585/mmwr.mm7135e2

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The figure is a histogram illustrating a model of the number of new infections each day by lower and higher transmission scenarios and type of partnership over the course of a monkeypox outbreak in the United States, by time since importation of 10 high activity cases. — Modeled number* of new infections each day by lower^† and higher^§ transmission scenarios and type of partnership over the course of a monkeypox outbreak among men who have sex with men, by time since importation of 10 high activity cases — United States, 2022

* Numbers presented are the mean number of infections across 60 stochastic trials in which no premature extinction occurred.

^† In the lower transmission scenario, it was assumed that there was a 60% probability of Monkeypox virus transmission per sex act: 54.0% of transmission occurred through one time, 33.2% through casual, and 12.9% through main partnerships over the course of the outbreak.

^§ In the higher transmission scenario, it was assumed that there was a 90% probability of Monkeypox virus transmission per sex act: 45.6% of transmission occurred through one time, 38.8% through casual, and 15.6% through main partnerships over the course of the outbreak.