TABLE. Modeled mean number of partners, population size, and risk ratio for acquiring monkeypox among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men, by level of sexual activity — United States, 2022*.
| Sexual activity stratum† | Mean no. and types§ of partners during time interval |
% of population | RR (by transmission scenario) |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Past yr |
Past 3 wks |
|||||
| All types | All types | One-time only | Lower | Higher | ||
| 1 (lowest) |
1.8 |
0.8 |
0.0 |
19 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
| 2 |
1.8 |
0.8 |
0.0 |
19 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
| 3 |
4.0 |
0.9 |
0.1 |
19 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
| 4 |
4.0 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
19 |
1.0¶ |
1.0¶ |
| 5 |
14.7 |
1.5 |
0.7 |
19 |
1.8 |
2.3 |
| 6 (highest) | 124.7 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 5 | 3.6 | 6.9 |
Abbreviation: RR = risk ratio.
* Contact data sources: https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1755436519301409; http://academic.oup.com/jid/article/214/12/1800/2632613; http://academic.oup.com/jid/article/214/12/1800/2632613
† Based on rate of one-time partnership formation. MSM in stratum 1 have a 0.000 probability of having a one-time sexual partner on any given day, and MSM in stratum 6 have a 0.286 probability of having a one time-time sexual partner on any given day. Strata 2–5 have one-time partnership probabilities between these two endpoints on any given day.
§ Partnerships include main (assumed to last an average of 477 days), casual (assumed to last an average of 166 days), and one-time (assumed to last 1 day).
¶ Comparison group for RR calculation.