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. 2022 Sep 16;12:15572. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-19759-4

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© The Author(s) 2022

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Results of the unifactorial models with speciation and extinction rates. (a) Regional temperature, continental fragmentation (using the Shoreline Development Index) and partly global temperature showed significant correlations with speciation and extinction rates (95% credible interval different from zero). (b) Bayes factors (BF) indicated that the models for SDI and regional temperature are significantly better than a constant model, but only for speciation rate. The plot is truncated at − 100 to focus on the differences in median Bayes factors; see Supplementary Table S1 for the complete data.