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. 2022 Sep 20;17(9):e0274835. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0274835

Fig 9. Dating of Akrotiri stages (ii)/(iii) and the Thera eruption (stage v) from Model 1.

Fig 9

(A) Results for the end of Stages (ii)/(iii) Boundary and the Thera Eruption Boundary from Model 1 run 3 with log-normal, LnN(ln(3),ln(2)), constraint applied (Table 1), detailing the 68.3% and 95.4% hpd calendar age ranges. Comparison is also shown versus the approximate start date of the NK = 18th Dynasty in Egypt ~1565/1540 BCE [7–9, 25, 30, 44, 61–63]. (B) Modelled posterior (solid, cyan) probability versus the log-normal prior (hollow distribution) for the Difference constraint. As indicated by the OxCal Agreement value of 98.8%, there is a very good correspondence between modelled result and prior assumption (see also S1 Fig). (C) Fit of Miletos wiggle-match and modelled dataset (b) (stages ii/iii) individual data against IntCal20 curve (1σ ages and μ±σ modelled calendar ranges) before end of Phase Boundary (see A) from Model 1. (Note: the Miletos wiggle-match oak data are shown placed against IntCal20 in Fig 9C, where they are more easily viewed, versus in Fig 9D, although they used as relevant to the non-Thera dataset (a) samples included in Fig 9D). (D) Fit of modelled datasets (a)+(c) (Thera eruption, stage v) individual data against IntCal20 curve (1σ ages and μ±σ modelled calendar ranges) before end of Phase Boundary (see A) from Model 1.