Table 3.
Predictive effectiveness of selected subgroups for prediction of participants in the total cohort progressing to RRT
| Selected subgroups | No. of participants | Proportion (%) | No. of RRT | RRT incidence per 1000 | Sensitivity | (95% CI) | Specificity | (95% CI) | PPV | (95% CI) | NPV | (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total CKD | 41 085 | 9.3 | 1547 | 2.8 | 0.70 | (0.68, 0.72) | 0.91 | (0.91, 0.91) | 0.04 | (0.04, 0.04) | 0.998 | (0.998, 0.998) |
| CKD stage 3 or higher | 17 243 | 3.9 | 1056 | 4.9 | 0.48 | (0.46, 0.50) | 0.96 | (0.96, 0.96) | 0.06 | (0.06, 0.07) | 0.997 | (0.997, 0.997) |
| CKD stage 4 or higher | 596 | 0.1 | 278 | 67.7 | 0.13 | (0.11, 0.14) | 1.00 | (1.00, 1.00) | 0.47 | (0.43, 0.51) | 0.996 | (0.995, 0.996) |
| eGFR <90 | 230 979 | 52.2 | 1851 | 0.6 | 0.84 | (0.82, 0.85) | 0.48 | (0.48, 0.48) | 0.01 | (0.01, 0.01) | 0.998 | (0.998, 0.998) |
| eGFR <60 | 17 243 | 3.9 | 1056 | 4.9 | 0.48 | (0.46, 0.50) | 0.96 | (0.96, 0.96) | 0.06 | (0.06, 0.07) | 0.997 | (0.997, 0.997) |
| eGFR <45 | 2886 | 0.7 | 606 | 21.6 | 0.27 | (0.26, 0.29) | 1.00 | (1.00, 1.00) | 0.21 | (0.20, 0.23) | 0.996 | (0.996, 0.997) |
| Trace proteinuria or above | 27 390 | 6.2 | 1247 | 3.3 | 0.56 | (0.54, 0.59) | 0.94 | (0.94, 0.94) | 0.05 | (0.04, 0.05) | 0.998 | (0.998, 0.998) |
| 1+ or above | 5698 | 1.3 | 859 | 13.8 | 0.39 | (0.37, 0.41) | 0.99 | (0.99, 0.99) | 0.15 | (0.14, 0.16) | 0.997 | (0.997, 0.997) |
| Screened diabetes | 18 425 | 4.2 | 941 | 4.3 | 0.43 | (0.41, 0.45) | 0.96 | (0.96, 0.96) | 0.05 | (0.05, 0.05) | 0.997 | (0.997, 0.997) |
| Screened hypertension | 57 623 | 13.0 | 1131 | 1.5 | 0.51 | (0.49, 0.53) | 0.87 | (0.87, 0.87) | 0.02 | (0.02, 0.02) | 0.997 | (0.997, 0.997) |
| This model: score 22 or above (optimal cut-off point) | 47 624 | 10.8 | 1879 | 3.0 | 0.85 | (0.83, 0.86) | 0.90 | (0.90, 0.90) | 0.04 | (0.04, 0.04) | 0.999 | (0.999, 0.999) |
| This model: score 33 or above (3% in 10 years) | 6578 | 1.5 | 1165 | 16.7 | 0.53 | (0.51, 0.55) | 0.99 | (0.99, 0.99) | 0.18 | (0.17, 0.19) | 0.998 | (0.997, 0.998) |
The optimal cut-off point for the model was selected as the point maximizing the Youden function, which is the difference between the true positive rate and false positive rate over all possible cut-off point values. CI, confidence interval; CKD, chronic kidney disease; eGFR, estimated glomerular filtration rate; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value; RRT, renal replacement therapy.