Table 1.
Parameter values for (i) the transmission model; (ii) the bootstrap particle filter; and (iii) the observation model
| Meaning | Value | |
|---|---|---|
 |
Force of infection | R0 · β |
| R0 | Basic reproduction number | ~U(1,2) |
 |
Incubation period (days−1) | ~[U(0·5,3)]–1 |
 |
Infectious period (days−1) | ~[U(0·5,3)]–1 |
| pseed | Daily probability of initial exposure | 1/36 |
| κF | Scaling factor for flow noise | 0·025 |
| κP | Scaling factor for parameter noise | 0·005 |
 |
Stochastic variable for seeding an initial exposure | ~U(0,1) |
| Npx | Number of particles | 3600 |
| Nmin | Minimum number of effective particles | 0·75·Npx |
| N | Population of metropolitan Melbourne | 4 108 541 |
| Δ | Observation period (days) | 7 |
| pbg | Background observation rate | varies |
| pid | Observation probability | varies |
| K | Dispersion parameter | varies; 101–103 |