Table 2.

Predicted age-specific distribution of numbers of previous episodes from the Markov model. Posterior mean % in each category (95% credible intervals)

(a) PID
Age, years	0 PID episode	1 PID episode	2 PID episodes	⩾3 PID episodes
All PID
16–19	95·7 (94·2–96·9)	3·89 (2·90–5·09)	0·43 (0·19–0·81)	0·03 (0·01–0·10)
20–24	86·7 (82·5–90·2)	10·3 (7·94–12·9)	2·38 (1·25–3·91)	0·64 (0·16–1·69)
25–34	75·3 (67·9–81·6)	17·2 (13·7–21·0)	5·30 (3·10–7·95)	2·16 (0·64–5·25)
35–44	66·4 (56·9–74·6)	22·2 (18·2–26·3)	7·77 (4·83–11·1)	3·67 (1·21–8·49)
(b) Diagnosed PID
Age, years	0 PID episode	1 PID episode	2 PID episodes	⩾3 PID episodes
All PID
16–19	98·4 (98·2–98·5)	1·58 (1·41–1·75)	0·06 (0·03–0·10)	0·00 (0·00–0·00)
20–24	94·6 (93·8–95·2)	4·97 (4·47–5·50)	0·44 (0·26–0·70)	0·03 (0·01–0·06)
25–34	89·3 (87·6–90·7)	9·44 (8·36–10·6)	1·15 (0·73–1·75)	0·09 (0·04–0·18)
35–44	84·7 (82·3–86·8)	13·0 (11·6–14·6)	1·81 (1·22–2·64)	0·49 (0·31–0·76)
(c) Salpingitis
Age, years	0 salpingitis episode	1 salpingitis episode	2 salpingitis episodes	⩾3 salpingitis episodes
All salpingitis
16–19	98·1 (97·0–99·0)	1·85 (1·02–2·88)	0·04 (0·01–0·14)	0·00 (0·00–0·00)
20–24	94·1 (90·7–96·8)	5·56 (3·18–8·35)	0·34 (0·07–0·93)	0·02 (0·00–0·10)
25–34	88·6 (82·3–93·6)	10·4 (6·11–15·0)	0·99 (0·23–2·44)	0·10 (0·01–0·40)
35–44	83·9 (75·3–91·0)	14·2 (8·55–20·1)	1·71 (0·45–3·96)	0·20 (0·02–0·78)
(d) Salpingitis and subsequent PID
Age, years	0 salpingitis episode	1 salpingitis, 0 further PID episode	1 salpingitis, 1 further PID episode	1 salpingitis, ⩾2 further PID episodes
All cause
16–19	98·1 (97·0–99·0)	1·69 (0·93–2·64)	0·19 (0·07–0·38)	0·01 (0·00–0·04)
20–24	94·1 (90·7–96·8)	4·59 (2·59–6·99)	1·06 (0·46–1·96)	0·28 (0·06–0·79)
25–34	88·6 (82·3–93·6)	8·03 (4·63–12·0)	2·44 (1·15–4·21)	0·98 (0·25–2·55)
35–44	83·9 (75·3–91·0)	10·7 (6·32–15·7)	3·66 (1·80–6·14)	1·69 (0·48–4·18)

PID, Pelvic inflammatory disease.