Table 3.

List of scenarios that were tested in scenario analysis and the modified parameter values under each scenario

Parameter	Scenario	Value	Comments
Compliance parameters (PV, PST, PC)	1	100% (baseline)	To assess the effect of reduced compliance. If 100% compliance is not observed, the waiting period is assumed to be 1 day
	2	99%
	3	90%
	4	80%
Annual number of imports (Naqs and Nusfj)	1	Baseline	To assess the effect of an increased level of importation
	2	Twofold increase
	3	Threefold increase
	4	Fivefold increase
Probability that the animal is incubating rabies (PI,s)	1	Baseline	To assess the effect of an increased number of rabies cases in all exporting countries
	2	Twofold increase
	3	Fivefold increase
	4	Tenfold increase
Probability that a vaccinated animal is not protected (PNP)	1	0·056 (baseline)	To assess the effect of a vaccine with poor efficacy being used in the exporting country
	2	0·1
	3	0·2
	4	0·5
	1	0·056 (two-time vaccination)	To assess the effect of the required number of rabies vaccination being reduced due to policy amendment
	2*	0·19 (one-time vaccination)
Probability that an unprotected animal passes serological testing (PST+)	1	0·031 (current regimenn)	To assess the effect of compulsory serological testing is abandoned due to policy amendment
	2	1 (removal of testing)
Waiting period in exporting countries	1	180 days (baseline)	To assess the effect if the waiting period is reduced due to policy amendment
	2	150 days
	3	120 days
	4	90 days
	5	60 days
	6	30 days
	7	1 day
Incubation period (IP)	1	Lognormal (23·7, 15) (experimental infection)	To assess the effect if a different probability distribution of IP is input into the model
	2	Lognormal (27·3, 20·2) (Tokyo epidemic)
	3	Lognormal (35, 36·8) (baseline)
	4	Lognormal (39·7, 41·9) (natural infection or naturally acquired cases)
Waiting period and required number of vaccination	1	No policy amendment (baseline)	To highlight to decision makers the potential for policy amendment recommended by the authors
	2	Recommended policy amendment: 90-day waiting period and one-time vaccination

* The P_NP for this scenario is given by .