Table 4.
Comparison of predicted values and actual values for the single ARIMA model and ARIMA-NAR model during April–October 2016 (per 100 000 population)
| Month | Actual value | ARIMA model | ARIMA-NAR model | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predicted value | Absolute error | Predicted value | Absolute error | ||
| April | 4·8713 | 4·6646 | 0·2067 | 4·6461 | 0·2252 |
| May | 4·7146 | 4·5892 | 0·1254 | 4·7167 | 0·0021 |
| June | 4·5353 | 4·3700 | 0·1653 | 4·3618 | 0·1735 |
| July | 4·5311 | 4·2098 | 0·3213 | 4·3464 | 0·1847 |
| August | 4·5890 | 4·3470 | 0·2420 | 4·2096 | 0·3794 |
| September | 4·3900 | 4·5840 | 0·1940 | 4·4476 | 0·0576 |
| October | 3·6432 | 4·0240 | 0·3808 | 3·8275 | 0·1843 |
| MAE | 0·2336 | 0·1724 | |||
ARIMA, Autoregressive integrated moving average; NAR, nonlinear autoregressive; MAE, Mean absolute error.