Table 1.
Hospitalisation, mortality and discontinuation parameters
| Mortality and hospitalisation in postadmission states | |||
| Definition | Probability | Beta distribution, α, β | Source |
| COPD-related death during admission | 2017 National UK COPD audit9 | ||
| Men | 0.046 | 654, 13 552 | |
| Women | 0.035 | 570, 15 514 | |
| COPD-related 90-day death post admission | 2017 National UK COPD audit9 | ||
| Men | 0.073 | 1043, 13 163 | |
| Women | 0.066 | 1058, 15 027 | |
| 90-day COPD-related readmission | 2017 National UK COPD audit9 | ||
| Men | 0.171 | 2423, 11 784 | |
| Women | 0.162 | 2609, 13 476 | |
| All-cause COPD mortality post admission | 2017 National UK COPD audit9 | ||
| 90-day men | 0.046 | 650, 13 556 | |
| 90-day women | 0.041 | 660, 15 425 | |
| Hospitalisation rate and risk of non-COPD-related mortality in the stable health state for the post hospital population | |||
| Definition | Rate | Sample size | Source |
| Base case | Garcia-Aymerich et al 12 | ||
| COPD admissions per year | 1.6 | 340 | |
| Non-COPD-related mortality | 0.071 | 340 | |
| Lowest rates | Bucknall et al 14 | ||
| COPD admissions per year | 0.47 | 464 | |
| Non-COPD-related mortality | 0.194 | 464 | |
| Highest rates | Budweiser et al 13 and Heinemann et al 15 | ||
| Base case risks multiplied by 2 | |||
| Treatment and exacerbation rates for stable population | ||||
| Severity stage | Annual exacerbation rate | Proportion of exacerbations hospitalised | Source |
|
| % | Beta distribution, α, β | |||
| GOLD 3 | 2.356 | 10.2 | 2267, 22 062 | Rothnie et al 10 |
| GOLD 4 | 2.914 | 13.4 | 862, 6429 | Rothnie et al 10 |
| Base case rate ratios for admission to domiciliary NIV relative to usual care | ||
| Rate Ratio (95% CI)* | Source | |
| All studies estimates | ||
| Posthospital population | ||
| Pooled mean | 0.494 (0.382 to 0.638) | Pooled result of 11 RCTs8 |
| Best-case NIV | 0.333 (0.187 to 0.596) | Li et al 30 |
| Worst-case NIV | 1.372 (1.067 to 1.763) | Struik et al 31 |
| Stable population | ||
| Pooled mean | 0.606 (0.482 to 0.760) | Pooled result of 10 RCTs8 |
| Best-case NIV | 0.346 (0.276 to 0.433) | Luyang et al 32 |
| Worst-case NIV | 1.166 (0.601 to 2.264) | Kamiński et al 33 |
| Western setting estimates† | ||
| Posthospital population | ||
| Pooled mean | 0.728 (0.212 to 2.504) | Pooled result of 2 RCTs8 |
| Best-case NIV | 0.389 (0.321 to 0.470) | Murphy et al 1 |
| Worst-case NIV | 1.372 (1.067 to 1.763) | Struik et al 31 |
| Stable population | ||
| Pooled mean | 0.718 (0.617 to 0.836) | Pooled result of 4 RCTs8 |
| Best-case NIV | 0.643 (0.432 to 0.956) | Clini et al 34 |
| Worst-case NIV | 1.166 (0.601 to 2.264) | Kaminski et al 33 |
| Discontinuation | |||
| Health state | Discontinuation Rate | Normal distribution, 95% CI | Source |
| All patients | 15% | 10% to 20% | Assumption and Dretzke et al 8 |
*Western settings included studies from Italy, Poland, the Netherlands, Germany and the UK. Non-Western studies contributing to meta-analyses are set in China.
†Natural log rate ratios and standard errors used in the probabilistic sensitivity analysis are shown in online supplemental appendix 6.
GOLD, Global Iniative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease; NIV, non-invasive ventilation; RCT, randomised controlled trial.