Table 10.
Results for 2015 wave only
| Unemployment | Inflation | Growth | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inaccuracy | Direction | Inaccuracy | Direction | Inaccuracy | Direction | |
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
| Education | ||||||
| Ref = < age 15 | ||||||
| Age 16–17 | − 0.54 (− 2.38) | − 0.45 (− 1.78) | − 0.33 (− 1.66) | − 0.26 (− 1.24) | − 0.14 (− 1.46) | − 0.01 (− 0.11) |
| Age 18–20 | − 1.22 (− 5.80) | − 1.16 (− 4.90) | − 0.77(− 4.42) | − 0.68 (− 3.97) | − 0.35 (− 3.48) | − 0.43 (− 2.99) |
| Age 21–24 | − 1.59 (− 6.05) | − 1.39 (− 5.18) | − 1.33 (− 8.08) | − 1.23 (− 7.21) | − 0.64 (− 6.13) | − 0.66 (− 5.07) |
| Age 25 + | − 1.64 (− 5.73) | − 1.54 (− 4.99) | − 1.40 (− 8.08) | − 1.28 (− 7.66) | − 0.81 (− 8.16) | − 0.75 (− 5.27) |
| Financial situation | ||||||
| Ref = very bad | ||||||
| Rather bad | − 0.91 (− 3.06) | − 0.73 (− 2.53) | − 0.93 (− 3.10) | − 0.81 (− 2.36) | − 0.24 (− 1.97) | 0.25 (1.23) |
| Rather good | − 1.42 (− 4.57) | − 1.26 (− 3.99) | − 1.35 (− 4.23) | − 1.23 (− 3.23) | − 0.34 (− 3.12) | 0.28 (1.41) |
| Very good | − 2.04 (− 6.36) | − 2.03 (− 5.77) | − 1.54 (− 5.03) | − 1.43 (− 3.96) | − 0.37 (− 2.91) | 0.28 (1.45) |
| Economic outlook | ||||||
| Ref = stay same | ||||||
| Worsen | 0.60 (2.65) | 0.65 (2.76) | 0.28 (1.58) | 0.24 (1.32) | 0.05 (0.47) | − 0.07 (− 0.56) |
| Improve | − 0.18 (− 1.30) | − 0.30 (− 1.89) | − 0.13 (− 1.46) | − 0.10 (− 1.06) | 0.08 (1.02) | 0.08 (0.85) |
| Nr economic issues mentioned among most important two | ||||||
| Ref = 0 | ||||||
| 1 | 0.41 (3.23) | 0.64 (4.18) | − 0.009 (− 0.08) | 0.02 (0.20) | 0.08 (1.14) | − 0.12 (− 1.25) |
| 2 | 0.51 (3.52) | 0.83 (4.83) | 0.05 (0.29) | 0.14 (0.75) | − 0.06 (− 0.56) | − 0.16 (− 1.33) |
| Trust statistics | − 0.82 (− 5.43) | − 0.90 (− 5.82) | − 0.36 (− 2.79) | − 0.29 (− 2.29) | − 0.04 (− 0.59) | 0.21 (2.67) |
| Discuss politics | ||||||
| Ref = never | ||||||
| Occasionally | − 0.79 (− 5.53) | − 0.59 (− 3.27) | − 0.64 (− 4.82) | − 0.58 (− 4.67) | − 0.32 (− 4.02) | − 0.28 (− 2.77) |
| Frequently | − 1.32 (− 6.79) | − 1.00 (− 3.99) | − 0.81 (− 3.93) | − 0.79 (− 3.97) | − 0.46 (− 3.37) | − 0.56 (− 3.56) |
| Political ideology | ||||||
| Ref = Center | ||||||
| Far left | − 0.02 (− 0.08) | − 0.25 (− 1.20) | 0.003 (0.02) | 0.01 (0.04) | 0.08 (0.65) | − 0.06 (− 0.38) |
| Center-left | − 0.46 (− 3.41) | − 0.42 (− 2.89) | − 0.26 (− 2.60) | − 0.26 (− 2.46) | − 0.09 (− 1.18) | − 0.11 (− 1.00) |
| Center-right | − 0.41 (− 3.49) | − 0.37 (− 2.75) | − 0.13 (− 1.27) | − 0.13 (− 1.16) | − 0.12 (− 1.59) | 0.05 (0.46) |
| Far right | 0.62 (2.64) | 0.15 (0.72) | 0.33 (1.66) | 0.24 (1.01) | 0.31 (2.50) | 0.10 (0.66) |
| Ideological distance from incumbent government | 0.14 (3.53) | 0.18 (4.26) | 0.07 (2.37) | 0.06 (2.02) | 0.06 (2.88) | 0.06 (2.10) |
| Occupation | ||||||
| Ref = Manager | ||||||
| Self-employed | 0.07 (0.38) | 0.06 (0.31) | 0.02 (0.11) | 0.04 (0.16) | 0.05 (0.37) | 0.08 (0.57) |
| Other white collar | − 0.02 (− 0.10) | − 0.14 (− 0.57) | 0.20 (1.42) | 0.20 (1.28) | 0.06 (0.77) | 0.12 (1.19) |
| Manual worker | 0.54 (2.04) | 0.45 (1.52) | 0.58 (4.96) | 0.58 (5.12) | 0.31 (2.25) | 0.45 (2.99) |
| House person | 0.40 (1.75) | 0.005 (0.02) | 0.59 (2.23) | 0.50 (1.88) | − 0.002 (− 0.01) | − 0.05 (− 0.24) |
| Unemployed | 0.44 (2.23) | 0.48 (1.85) | 0.53 (2.39) | 0.43 (1.65) | 0.34 (2.65) | 0.37 (1.99) |
| Retired | 0.50 (2.03) | 0.53 (2.49) | 0.50 (3.31) | 0.52 (3.29) | 0.11 (0.95) | 0.24 (1.60) |
| Student | − 0.37 (− 1.05) | − 0.29 (− 0.71) | 0.28 (1.17) | 0.31 (1.26) | 0.24 (1.79) | 0.30 (1.61) |
| Female | 1.31 (7.33) | 1.16 (5.14) | 0.81 (7.12) | 0.83 (7.18) | 0.52 (6.23) | 0.59 (6.11) |
| Age | − 0.11 (− 4.81) | − 0.06 (− 2.00) | − 0.08 (− 3.74) | − 0.07 (− 3.36) | − 0.04 (− 6.28) | − 0.05 (− 4.50) |
| Age-square | 0.0006 (2.71) | 0.00004 (0.17) | 0.0004 (2.02) | 0.0004 (1.73) | 0.0003 (4.32) | 0.0003 (2.46) |
| National unemp rate | − 0.24 (− 6.75) | − 0.50 (− 7.72) | ||||
| National infl rate | − 1.45 (− 5.42) | − 1.61 (− 6.54) | ||||
| National growth rate | − 0.04 (− 0.38) | − 0.58 (− 9.70) | ||||
| GDP per capita (log) | − 1.15 (− 3.00) | − 1.54 (− 3.97) | − 1.62 (− 5.38) | − 1.47 (− 4.86) | − 0.11 (− 0.52) | − 0.83 (− 2.91) |
| Number of countries | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 |
| Number of regions | 240 | 240 | 239 | 239 | 239 | 239 |
| Observations | 16,828 | 16,828 | 14,694 | 14,694 | 14,536 | 14,536 |
| LPSLH | − 52,925.9 | − 55,174.2 | − 43,106.3 | − 44,062.9 | − 35,490.6 | − 39,471.9 |
z-statistic in parentheses. Robust standard errors clustered by country. Constant not shown