Table 2.
Inaccuracy and directional bias of personal estimates
| Unemployment | Inflation | Growth | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inaccuracy | Direction | Inaccuracy | Direction | Inaccuracy | Direction | |
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
| Education | ||||||
| Ref = < age 15 | ||||||
| Age 16–17 | − 0.38 (− 2.73) | − 0.25 (− 1.50) | − 0.29 (− 2.29) | − 0.27 (− 2.01) | − 0.19 (− 2.71) | − 0.15 (− 1.43) |
| Age 18–20 | − 0.90 (− 5.75) | − 0.84 (− 4.98) | − 0.73 (− 6.55) | − 0.70 (− 6.30) | − 0.35 (− 4.68) | − 0.43 (− 4.30) |
| Age 21–24 | − 1.23 (− 6.42) | − 1.04 (− 5.38) | − 1.18 (− 9.29) | − 1.16 (− 8.93) | − 0.59 (− 7.45) | − 0.65 (− 6.14) |
| Age 25 + | − 1.30 (− 6.13) | − 1.22 (− 5.57) | − 1.22 (− 9.22) | − 1.20 (− 9.32) | − 0.73 (− 9.49) | − 0.78 (− 7.24) |
| Financial situation | ||||||
| Ref = very bad | ||||||
| Rather bad | − 0.84 (− 3.95) | − 0.71 (− 3.39) | − 1.01 (− 5.51) | − 0.91 (− 4.50) | − 0.24 (− 2.28) | 0.27 (1.50) |
| Rather good | − 1.22 (− 5.51) | − 1.18 (− 5.27) | − 1.39 (− 6.93) | − 1.31 (− 5.62) | − 0.34 (− 3.88) | 0.34 (2.15) |
| Very good | − 1.69 (− 6.79) | − 1.83 (− 6.90) | − 1.49 (− 7.42) | − 1.42 (− 6.46) | − 0.34 (− 3.40) | 0.36 (2.24) |
| Economic outlook | ||||||
| Ref = stay same | ||||||
| Worsen | 0.42 (3.05) | 0.42 (2.78) | 0.27 (2.64) | 0.25 (2.32) | 0.06 (0.76) | − 0.03 (− 0.30) |
| Improve | − 0.19 (− 1.78) | − 0.27 (− 2.30) | − 0.01 (− 0.22) | 0.02 (0.31) | 0.07 (1.14) | 0.07 (0.84) |
| Nr economic issues mentioned among most important two | ||||||
| Ref = 0 | ||||||
| 1 | 0.31 (3.42) | 0.44 (3.92) | 0.06 (0.81) | 0.09 (1.07) | 0.07 (1.35) | − 0.08 (− 1.45) |
| 2 | 0.46 (4.86) | 0.68 (5.82) | 0.14 (1.10) | 0.22 (1.60) | − 0.01 (− 0.15) | − 0.15 (− 1.68) |
| Trust statistics | − 0.64 (− 5.75) | − 0.71 (− 6.61) | − 0.34 (− 3.99) | − 0.32 (− 3.75) | − 0.04 (− 0.57) | 0.20 (2.91) |
| Discuss politics | ||||||
| Ref = never | ||||||
| Occasionally | − 0.67 (− 5.73) | − 0.53 (− 3.42) | − 0.58 (− 6.27) | − 0.53 (− 5.81) | − 0.32 (− 5.00) | − 0.26 (− 3.01) |
| Frequently | − 1.13 (− 7.84) | − 0.89 (− 4.63) | − 0.82 (− 6.35) | − 0.81 (− 6.13) | − 0.43 (− 4.06) | − 0.51 (− 3.80) |
| Political ideology | ||||||
| Ref = Center | ||||||
| Far left | 0.02 (0.12) | − 0.18 (− 1.31) | 0.01 (0.07) | 0.01 (0.08) | 0.03 (0.31) | − 0.03 (− 0.23) |
| Center-left | − 0.33 (− 3.87) | − 0.27 (− 2.71) | − 0.27 (− 3.28) | − 0.28 (− 3.09) | − 0.09 (− 1.26) | − 0.13 (− 1.36) |
| Center-right | − 0.28 (− 4.19) | − 0.20 (− 2.60) | − 0.13 (− 1.81) | − 0.13 (− 1.46) | − 0.12 (− 1.87) | 0.04 (0.41) |
| Far right | 0.49 (3.39) | 0.15 (1.02) | 0.36 (2.46) | 0.28 (1.57) | 0.23 (2.28) | 0.12 (1.01) |
| Ideological distance from incumbent government | 0.10 (3.40) | 0.11 (3.19) | 0.05 (2.07) | 0.04 (1.49) | 0.04 (2.11) | 0.04 (1.35) |
| Occupation | ||||||
| Ref = Manager | ||||||
| Self-employed | 0.19 (1.60) | 0.21 (1.64) | 0.13 (0.91) | 0.12 (0.79) | 0.07 (0.74) | 0.04 (0.44) |
| Other white collar | 0.004 (0.02) | − 0.06 (− 0.36) | 0.13 (1.23) | 0.13 (1.12) | 0.10 (1.76) | 0.04 (0.48) |
| Manual worker | 0.52 (3.01) | 0.40 (1.97) | 0.60 (6.79) | 0.59 (7.27) | 0.27 (2.55) | 0.33 (2.79) |
| House person | 0.30 (2.21) | 0.07 (0.44) | 0.70 (4.35) | 0.70 (4.13) | 0.17 (1.26) | 0.23 (1.57) |
| Unemployed | 0.58 (3.75) | 0.60 (3.01) | 0.50 (3.04) | 0.42 (2.35) | 0.33 (3.21) | 0.35 (2.33) |
| Retired | 0.48 (3.04) | 0.54 (3.59) | 0.48 (4.93) | 0.50 (4.91) | 0.14 (1.34) | 0.25 (1.84) |
| Student | − 0.14 (− 0.71) | − 0.03 (− 0.13) | 0.30 (1.95) | 0.31 (2.02) | 0.26 (2.22) | 0.26 (1.83) |
| EB2015 dummy | 3.35 (11.93) | 4.17 (16.79) | 1.04 (2.19) | 0.63 (1.20) | 1.27 (3.84) | 0.02 (0.04) |
| Female | 1.02 (7.07) | 0.97 (5.90) | 0.73 (7.16) | 0.75 (7.09) | 0.47 (6.60) | 0.55 (6.50) |
| Age | − 0.07 (− 4.54) | − 0.03 (− 1.35) | − 0.07 (− 4.02) | − 0.06 (− 3.59) | − 0.03 (− 4.36) | − 0.03 (− 2.97) |
| Age-square | 0.0003 (2.10) | − 0.0001 (− 0.81) | 0.0004 (2.30) | 0.0003 (1.93) | 0.0002 (2.77) | 0.0002 (1.32) |
| National unemp rate | − 0.22 (− 6.20) | − 0.46 (− 11.32) | ||||
| National infl rate | − 0.64 (− 6.60) | − 0.83 (− 7.61) | ||||
| National growth rate | 0.07 (1.67) | − 0.62 (− 6.24) | ||||
| GDP per capita (log) | − 0.92 (− 4.04) | − 1.36 (− 4.50) | − 2.14 (− 5.54) | − 1.91 (− 5.30) | − 0.18 (− 1.28) | − 0.82 (− 3.83) |
| Number of countries | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 |
| Number of regions | 490 | 490 | 490 | 490 | 487 | 487 |
| Observations | 28,334 | 28,334 | 25,035 | 25,035 | 19,530 | 19,530 |
| LPSLH | − 84,765.7 | − 89,042.1 | − 71,077.6 | − 72,831.3 | − 46,457.3 | − 51,980.0 |
z-statistic in parentheses. Robust standard errors clustered by country. Constant not shown