Table 8.
Fixed-effects specification of the main results
| Unemployment | Inflation | Growth | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inaccuracy | Direction | Inaccuracy | Direction | Inaccuracy | Direction | |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
| Education | ||||||
| Ref = < age 15 | ||||||
| Age 16–17 | − 0.42 (− 2.65) | − 0.25 (− 1.31) | − 0.39 (− 3.10) | − 0.38 (− 2.91) | − 0.24 (− 3.16) | − 0.18 (− 1.50) |
| Age 18–20 | − 0.94 (− 5.20) | − 0.89 (− 4.53) | − 0.81 (− 7.16) | − 0.78 (− 6.99) | − 0.38 (− 4.98) | − 0.45 (− 4.91) |
| Age 21–24 | − 1.29 (− 5.80) | − 1.11 (− 4.65) | − 1.30 (− 10.36) | − 1.30 (− 9.84) | − 0.63 (− 7.25) | − 0.72 (− 7.20) |
| Age 25 + | − 1.39 (− 5.95) | − 1.24 (− 4.94) | − 1.39 (− 10.03) | − 1.37 (− 10.00) | − 0.80 (− 9.24) | − 0.85 (− 8.36) |
| Financial situation | ||||||
| Ref = very bad | ||||||
| Rather bad | − 0.67 (− 2.24) | − 0.47 (− 1.57) | − 1.18 (− 4.63) | − 1.05 (− 3.86) | − 0.27 (− 2.31) | 0.22 (1.10) |
| Rather good | − 0.98 (− 2.97) | − 0.78 (− 2.27) | − 1.60 (− 5.20) | − 1.49 (− 4.44) | − 0.36 (− 3.86) | 0.33 (1.65) |
| Very good | − 1.48 (− 4.08) | − 1.41 (− 3.47) | − 1.78 (− 5.66) | − 1.70 (− 5.10) | − 0.41 (− 3.76) | 0.30 (1.53) |
| Economic outlook | ||||||
| Ref = stay same | ||||||
| Worsen | 0.43 (2.80) | 0.44 (2.41) | 0.22 (1.70) | 0.19 (1.30) | 0.08 (0.93) | 0.01 (0.06) |
| Improve | − 0.21 (− 1.74) | − 0.48 (− 3.66) | − 0.01 (− 0.10) | 0.01 (0.14) | 0.09 (1.27) | − 0.06 (− 0.51) |
| Nr economic issues mentioned among most important two | ||||||
| Ref = 0 | ||||||
| 1 | 0.32 (2.83) | 0.32 (1.81) | 0.07 (0.63) | 0.10 (0.78) | 0.04 (0.63) | − 0.17 (− 2.02) |
| 2 | 0.39 (3.66) | 0.43 (2.22) | 0.26 (2.08) | 0.36 (2.64) | 0.002 (0.02) | − 0.19 (− 1.64) |
| Trust statistics | − 0.59 (− 4.84) | − 0.64 (− 5.39) | − 0.32 (− 3.38) | − 0.29 (− 3.01) | − 0.02 (− 0.27) | 0.25 (3.28) |
| Discuss politics | ||||||
| Ref = never | ||||||
| Occasionally | − 0.72 (− 5.60) | − 0.59 (− 3.49) | − 0.56 (− 5.68) | − 0.51 (− 5.29) | − 0.32 (− 4.64) | − 0.27 (− 3.14) |
| Frequently | − 1.28 (− 8.18) | − 1.10 (− 6.08) | − 0.87 (− 6.07) | − 0.87 (− 5.95) | − 0.45 (− 4.16) | − 0.58 (− 4.41) |
| Political ideology | ||||||
| Ref = Centre | ||||||
| Far left | 0.05 (0.37) | − 0.11 (− 0.64) | 0.05 (0.43) | 0.06 (0.46) | 0.06 (0.59) | 0.02 (0.15) |
| Centre-left | − 0.33 (− 4.08) | − 0.24 (− 2.15) | − 0.22 (− 2.32) | − 0.21 (− 2.11) | − 0.06 (− 0.89) | − 0.13 (− 1.33) |
| Centre-right | − 0.31 (− 4.17) | − 0.22 (− 2.32) | − 0.11 (− 1.43) | − 0.09 (− 1.08) | − 0.12 (− 1.51) | 0.09 (0.74) |
| Far right | 0.57 (3.54) | 0.29 (1.43) | 0.34 (2.71) | 0.26 (1.93) | 0.31 (2.97) | 0.15 (0.98) |
| Ideological distance from incumbent government | 0.08 (2.19) | 0.07 (1.31) | 0.04 (1.40) | 0.03 (0.90) | 0.03 (1.45) | 0.03 (1.02) |
| Occupation | ||||||
| Ref = Manager | ||||||
| Self-employed | 0.21 (1.81) | 0.22 (1.63) | 0.16 (1.14) | 0.14 (0.92) | 0.06 (0.62) | 0.15 (1.41) |
| Other white collar | 0.06 (0.32) | 0.03 (0.16) | 0.19 (1.67) | 0.19 (1.56) | 0.11 (1.81) | 0.08 (1.10) |
| Manual worker | 0.56 (2.94) | 0.46 (2.18) | 0.62 (5.96) | 0.61 (6.66) | 0.26 (2.53) | 0.34 (3.23) |
| House person | 0.40 (2.51) | 0.22 (1.39) | 0.66 (4.20) | 0.69 (4.34) | 0.10 (0.75) | 0.42 (2.49) |
| Unemployed | 0.58 (3.15) | 0.64 (2.86) | 0.54 (3.08) | 0.45 (2.32) | 0.33 (3.11) | 0.38 (2.55) |
| Retired | 0.50 (2.81) | 0.62 (3.91) | 0.45 (4.82) | 0.46 (4.75) | 0.11 (1.02) | 0.27 (1.93) |
| Student | − 0.08 (− 0.42) | 0.11 (0.46) | 0.29 (2.02) | 0.28 (1.90) | 0.25 (2.07) | 0.30 (1.83) |
| EB2015 dummy | 2.70 (8.58) | 2.95 (6.72) | 2.45 (7.84) | 2.60 (7.09) | 0.80 (4.98) | 1.37 (3.94) |
| Female | 1.03 (7.28) | 0.96 (5.90) | 0.74 (7.23) | 0.77 (7.29) | 0.46 (6.57) | 0.52 (6.16) |
| Age | − 0.06 (− 3.72) | − 0.02 (− 0.78) | − 0.06 (− 3.24) | − 0.06 (− 2.87) | − 0.03 (− 3.44) | − 0.03 (− 2.06) |
| Age-square | 0.0002 (1.35) | − 0.0002 (− 1.37) | 0.0003 (1.64) | 0.0002 (1.29) | 0.0002 (2.13) | 0.0001 (0.70) |
| Country fixed-effects | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Number of countries | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 |
| Observations | 29,238 | 29,238 | 25,875 | 25,875 | 20,014 | 20,014 |
| R-square | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.22 | 0.20 | 0.10 | 0.13 |
t-statistic in parentheses. Robust standard errors clustered by country. Constant not shown