Table 9.
Results for 2007 wave only
| Unemployment | Inflation | Growth | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inaccuracy | Direction | Inaccuracy | Direction | Inaccuracy | Direction | |
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
| Education | ||||||
| Ref = < age 15 | ||||||
| Age 16–17 | − 0.12 (− 0.86) | 0.08 (0.41) | − 0.21 (− 1.32) | − 0.24 (− 1.39) | − 0.24 (− 2.46) | − 0.44 (− 3.50) |
| Age 18–20 | − 0.43 (− 2.81) | − 0.33 (− 1.79) | − 0.66 (− 5.22) | − 0.70 (− 5.30) | − 0.30 (− 3.45) | − 0.40 (− 2.95) |
| Age 21–24 | − 0.72 (− 4.50) | − 0.49 (− 2.29) | − 0.94 (− 6.35) | − 1.03 (− 6.45) | − 0.38 (− 3.01) | − 0.52 (− 3.27) |
| Age 25 + | − 0.83 (− 4.62) | − 0.74 (− 3.52) | − 0.95 (− 6.39) | − 1.06 (− 6.85) | − 0.43 (− 3.47) | − 0.82 (− 4.89) |
| Financial situation | ||||||
| Ref = very bad | ||||||
| Rather bad | − 0.67 (− 3.59) | − 0.67 (− 2.83) | − 1.10 (− 4.26) | − 1.05 (− 3.86) | − 0.27 (− 1.58) | 0.22 (0.68) |
| Rather good | − 0.89 (− 4.17) | − 1.11 (− 4.31) | − 1.41 (− 5.38) | − 1.38 (− 5.15) | − 0.39 (− 2.28) | 0.30 (1.01) |
| Very good | − 0.97 (− 3.34) | − 1.41 (− 4.32) | − 1.26 (− 4.32) | − 1.30 (− 4.44) | − 0.16 (− 0.88) | 0.49 (1.65) |
| Economic outlook | ||||||
| Ref = stay same | ||||||
| Worsen | 0.23 (2.57) | 0.17 (1.38) | 0.28 (2.45) | 0.27 (2.27) | 0.11 (1.86) | 0.06 (0.60) |
| Improve | − 0.17 (− 1.74) | − 0.21 (− 1.99) | 0.10 (1.09) | 0.14 (1.40) | 0.01 (0.15) | 0.09 (1.17) |
| Nr economic issues mentioned among most important two | ||||||
| Ref = 0 | ||||||
| 1 | 0.19 (2.37) | 0.23 (2.10) | 0.16 (1.94) | 0.19 (2.02) | 0.10 (1.66) | 0.19 (2.16) |
| 2 | 0.38 (3.81) | 0.51 (4.05) | 0.29 (2.18) | 0.37 (2.44) | 0.17 (1.98) | 0.10 (0.89) |
| Trust statistics | − 0.33 (− 3.68) | − 0.39 (− 3.57) | − 0.32 (− 3.77) | − 0.35 (− 3.53) | − 0.005 (− 0.05) | 0.13 (1.08) |
| Discuss politics | ||||||
| Ref = never | ||||||
| Occasionally | − 0.46 (− 3.46) | − 0.41 (− 2.40) | − 0.54 (− 5.32) | − 0.52 (− 4.47) | − 0.33 (− 3.29) | − 0.26 (− 1.85) |
| Frequently | − 0.80 (− 5.03) | − 0.68 (− 3.75) | − 0.88 (− 8.26) | − 0.87 (− 6.41) | − 0.36 (− 2.77) | − 0.34 (− 2.03) |
| Political ideology | ||||||
| Ref = Center | ||||||
| Far left | 0.12 (0.81) | 0.04 (0.20) | 0.08 (0.52) | 0.09 (0.44) | − 0.02 (− 0.18) | 0.10 (0.49) |
| Center-left | − 0.12 (− 1.58) | 0.004 (0.04) | − 0.24 (− 2.58) | − 0.24 (− 2.17) | − 0.04 (− 0.41) | − 0.10 (− 0.64) |
| Center-right | − 0.14 (− 1.80) | − 0.02 (− 0.18) | − 0.14 (− 1.51) | − 0.12 (− 1.18) | − 0.13 (− 1.58) | − 0.06 (− 0.51) |
| Far right | 0.23 (1.61) | 0.06 (0.32) | 0.42 (2.46) | 0.34 (1.82) | − 0.07 (− 0.46) | 0.06 (0.27) |
| Ideological distance from incumbent government | 0.03 (1.25) | − 0.01 (− 0.44) | 0.03 (0.82) | 0.01 (0.33) | − 0.01 (− 0.71) | − 0.02 (− 0.47) |
| Occupation | ||||||
| Ref = Manager | ||||||
| Self-employed | 0.32 (2.51) | 0.40 (2.01) | 0.27 (1.95) | 0.24 (1.45) | 0.18 (1.77) | 0.01 (0.08) |
| Other white collar | 0.05 (0.42) | 0.02 (0.16) | 0.04 (0.37) | 0.03 (0.23) | 0.24 (2.56) | − 0.19 (− 1.30) |
| Manual worker | 0.51 (4.36) | 0.34 (1.93) | 0.64 (7.72) | 0.60 (7.59) | 0.19 (2.27) | 0.03 (0.27) |
| House person | 0.26 (1.92) | 0.18 (1.19) | 0.89 (3.88) | 0.98 (3.87) | 0.63 (2.99) | 0.86 (3.00) |
| Unemployed | 0.68 (3.28) | 0.65 (2.94) | 0.42 (2.06) | 0.39 (1.56) | 0.26 (1.81) | 0.34 (1.76) |
| Retired | 0.43 (3.70) | 0.52 (2.96) | 0.46 (3.08) | 0.49 (3.16) | 0.22 (1.70) | 0.30 (1.95) |
| Student | 0.20 (1.22) | 0.31 (1.36) | 0.34 (2.28) | 0.30 (1.75) | 0.35 (2.05) | 0.14 (0.53) |
| Female | 0.62 (4.61) | 0.73 (5.91) | 0.63 (5.11) | 0.64 (5.06) | 0.32 (3.61) | 0.43 (3.24) |
| Age | − 0.03 (− 1.73) | 0.006 (0.33) | − 0.06 (− 3.08) | − 0.06 (− 2.74) | 0.0005 (0.04) | − 0.009 (− 0.52) |
| Age-square | 0.00006 (0.41) | − 0.0002 (− 1.40) | 0.0004 (1.94) | 0.0004 (1.66) | − 0.0001 (− 0.56) | − 0.00006 (− 0.34) |
| National unemp rate | − 0.24 (− 4.63) | − 0.51 (− 5.61) | ||||
| National infl rate | − 0.16 (− 1.44) | − 0.37 (− 2.85) | ||||
| National growth rate | 0.13 (2.57) | − 0.43 (− 5.16) | ||||
| GDP per capita (log) | − 0.77 (− 3.80) | − 1.04 (− 3.56) | − 1.02 (− 3.14) | − 0.90 (− 2.35) | 0.10 (0.62) | − 0.13 (− 0.49) |
| Number of countries | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 |
| Number of regions | 259 | 259 | 260 | 260 | 257 | 257 |
| Observations | 11,506 | 11,506 | 10,341 | 10,341 | 4,994 | 4,994 |
| LPSLH | − 29,780.7 | − 32,393.4 | − 27,436.8 | − 28,293.8 | − 10,415.9 | − 12,073.3 |
z-statistic in parentheses. Robust standard errors clustered by country. Constant not shown