Table 2.

Hazard ratios of knee replacement for predictors in the clinical model and radiographic model in the MOST training dataset (n=2658)

		Clinical model		Radiographic model
		Crude HR (95% CI)	Adjusted HR (95% CI)	Crude HR (95% CI)	Adjusted HR (95% CI)
Age, years
	<55	1 (ref)	1 (ref)	1 (ref)	1 (ref)
	55–59	1·82 (1·13–2·93)	1·74 (1·08–2·8)	1·82 (1·13–2·93)	1·72 (1·06–2·78)
	60–64	2·64 (1·72–4·05)	2·49 (1·62–3·84)	2·64 (1·72–4·05)	1·88 (1·22–2·90)
	65–69	2·87 (1·87–4·42)	2·84 (1·83–4·40)	2·87 (1·87–4·42)	1·88 (1·21–2·9)
	70–74	3·55 (2·28–5·51)	3·62 (2·31–5·67)	3·55 (2·28–5·51)	1·86 (1·19–2·91)
	≥75	2·72 (1·62–4·54)	2·75 (1·63–4·66)	2·72 (1·62–4·54)	1·13 (0·67–1·9)
Sex
	Male	1 (ref)	1 (ref)	1 (ref)	1 (ref)
	Female	1·69 (1·3–2·19)	1·32 (1·01–1·73)	1·69 (1·3–2·19)	1·57 (1·2–2·05)
Race
	White	1 (ref)	1 (ref)	1 (ref)	1 (ref)
	Non-White	0·71 (0·51–1·00)	0·53 (0·36–0·77)	0·71 (0·51–1·00)	0·43 (0·30–0·61)
History of knee arthroscopy
	No	1 (ref)	1 (ref)	..	..
	Yes	2·39 (1·84–3·11)	1·99 (1·52–2·61)	..	..
Frequent knee pain
	No	1 (ref)	1 (ref)	1 (ref)	1 (ref)
	Yes	5·18 (3·35–8·00)	2·70 (1·72–4·24)	5·18 (3·35–8·00)	1·98 (1·26–3·10)
Use of analgesics
	No	1 (ref)	1 (ref)	1 (ref)	1 (ref)
	Yes	2·43 (1·87–3·14)	1·67 (1·28–2·18)	2·43 (1·87–3·14)	1·66 (1·27–2·18)
Use of glucosamine
	No	1 (ref)	1 (ref)	..	..
	Yes	1·97 (1·56–2·49)	1·67 (1·31–2·13)	..	..
Body-mass index		1·05 (1·03–1·07)	1·05 (1·03–1·06)	..	..
WOMAC pain score		1·16 (1·14–1·19)	1·12 (1·09–1·16)	1·16 (1·14–1·19)	1·08 (1·05–1·11)
Kellgren-Lawrence grade
	0	..	..	1 (ref)	1 (ref)
	1	..	..	2·40 (0·84–6·84)	2·26 (0·79–6·46)
	2	..	..	9·01 (3·94–20·6)	7·19 (3·14–16·5)
	3	..	..	36·2 (16·9–77·4)	24·6 (11·4–53·0)
	4	..	..	74·7 (34·9–160)	54·7 (25·3–118)

HR=hazard ratio. WOMAC=Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index. MOST=the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study.