Table 3.

Model performance for the internal test set and external validation set.

Ranka	Model	Test set (OAIb), AUCc (95% CI)	External validation set (MOSTd), AUC (95% CI)
1	LASSOe	0.869 (0.824-0.913)	0.876 (0.853-0.899)
2	GBMf	0.858 (0.813-0.903)	0.872 (0.849-0.895)
3	Ridge	0.864 (0.818-0.910)	0.852 (0.827-0.878)
4	Random forest	0.808 (0.741-0.874)	0.822 (0.790-0.853)
5	Logistic regression	0.837 (0.786-0.888)	0.808 (0.775-0.840)
6	Decision tree	0.673 (0.604-0.742)	0.720 (0.685-0.755)

^aModels are ranked by their performance on the external validation data set.

^bOAI: Osteoarthritis Initiative.

^cAUC: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.

^dMOST: Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study.

^eLASSO: least absolute shrinkage and selection operator.

^fGBM: gradient boosting machine.