Table 9.

OLS and IV estimates for the transmission rates: impacts on new cases.

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(6)
$\Delta Infectiou{s}_{ot}$	0.98***	1.19***	1.19***	1.12***	1.25***
	(0.01)	(0.08)	(0.08)	(0.08)	(0.08)
Observations	583,510	583,301	414,944	583,301	583,301
State-day fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Instruments used
Revisions (commuting)		Yes	No	Yes	No
Unpredicted (commuting)		Yes	No	No	Yes
Revisions (local)		No	Yes	No	No
Unpredicted (local)		No	Yes	No	No
Kleibergen Paap F		146.5	144.3	213.4	18.95
Hansen J		1.329	1.168
p-value		0.249	0.280
Endogeneity test $p$-value		0.00767	0.00524	0.108	0.00651

Notes. ***$p$ $<$ 0.01, **$p$ $<$ 0.05, *$p$ $<$ 0.1. Estimated in first differences. Twoway (county and day) clustered standard errors in parentheses. $\Delta Infectiou{s}_{ot}$is the 6-day lagged 5-day average number of infected, weighted for each destination county with the origin-normalized commuting flows, multiplied with the origin population.