Figure 2. Behavioral Task.

Screenshots show successive events for 2 example trials, one for good news (A) and one for bad news (B). The task was self-paced, and individual response times were recorded. The task design comprised 2 sessions. During the first session, participants were presented with an adverse life event for each trial and were asked to estimate their own as well as other people’s likelihood of experiencing that event in the future (initial belief estimate and estimated base rate, respectively). They also rated their confidence in each estimate. At the end of each trial, the average likelihood of that event occurring in the general population (base rate) was displayed, and participants rated their confidence in that base rate. During the second session, each trial started with the presentation of the actual base rate associated with an event, and participants reestimated their likelihood of experiencing this event in the future (second belief estimate) as well as how confident they were in their second estimate.