Table 2. Standardized regression coefficients (R²) from univariate models predicting elk recruitment and abundance.

Hyp.	Predictor	Timber	Non-timber	Island-wide	Raspberry
Winter Severity	Mean min. winter temperature (°C)	0.002	0.035	0.005	0.199
	Mean winter temperature (°C)	0.006	0.014	<0.001	0.212
	Snowfall (mm)	0.006	0.013	<0.001	0.098
	Snow depth (mm)	0.001	0.007	0.001	0.109
Spring Bottleneck	Mean spring temperature (°C)	0.016	0.062	0.008	0.106
	Spring precipitation (mm)	0.026	0.002	0.009	0.005
	Day of final spring freeze (°C)	0.032	0.002	0.020	0.016
	Winter season length (days)	0.121	0.021	0.100	0.030
Maternal Carry-over	Mean summer temperature (°C)	0.041	0.016	0.001	0.128
	Summer precipitation (mm)	0.074	0.008	0.033	0.010
	Growing degree days	0.022	0.001	0.003	0.181
	SPEI forest	0.129	<0.001	0.022	0.017
	SPEI shrub	0.018	<0.001	0.002	0.061
	Mean fall temperature (°C)	0.018	0.025	0.029	0.186
	Fall precipitation (mm)	0.074	0.008	0.056	0.017
	Day of first fall freeze	0.180	0.059	0.175	0.016
Timber Harvest	Area timber harvest age < 1 (km2)	0.000		0.025
	Area timber harvest age 1–5 (km2)	0.037		0.064
	Area timber harvest age 6–30 (km2)	0.052		0.222
	Area timber harvest age > 30 (km2)	0.008		0.048
	Total area timber harvest (km2)	0.050		0.193
	Brown bear abundance	0.033	0.224	0.203

Standardized regression coefficient (R²) values for elk univariate linear models for all predictors for each hypothesis (Hyp.) and model (timber recruitment [timber], non-timber recruitment [non-timber], island-wide recruitment [island-wide], and Raspberry herd abundance [Raspberry]) with selected predictors for each model in bold, Afognak and Raspberry islands, Alaska, USA, 1958–2020.