Table 1.
Description of the variables used in the models of precocity and severity of COVID-19 (April–October 2020).
Source: Sub-National COVID-19 Incidence and Determinants Dataset.
| Variable | Description | Spatial scope* | Time scope |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly deaths (dependent variable) | COVID-19 related weekly deaths | Subnational | Weekly |
| International mobility | |||
| Incoming passengers | Total incoming airline passengers in NUTS2 region, lagged by 1 month | Subnational | Monthly |
| Importation risk | COVID-19 related weekly deaths per capita in NUTS2 sending regions weighted by share of total incoming passengers from each region, lagged by 1 month | Subnational | Monthly |
| Airport centrality | Eigenvector centrality of airports in international travel network, where edges are weighted by number of passengers (median of airports in region), lagged by 1 month | Subnational | Monthly |
| Absence of airports | No airport in the region (dummy variable) | Subnational | Time-invariant |
| Travel restrictions | |||
| None/minimal | No travel ban or only screening and/or quarantining at arrival, lagged by 3 weeks | National | Weekly |
| Partial bans | Ban on arrivals from certain regions, lagged by 3 weeks | National | Weekly |
| Total ban | Ban on all regions or total border closure, lagged by 3 weeks | National | Weekly |
| Local factors | |||
| Population | Size of resident population | Subnational | Time-invariant |
| Oxford-tracker stringency index (modified) | Index summarizing containment and closure policies including: school closure, workplace closing, cancelling of public events, restrictions on gatherings, closing of public transport, stay at home requirements and restrictions on internal movement; not containing air travel policies, lagged by 3 weeks | National | Weekly |
| Real GDP pc PPP | Real GDP per capita PPP at constant prices (millions of USD) | Subnational | Time-invariant |
| Population density | Population per km2 | Subnational | Time-invariant |
| Hospital beds per 1000 | Hospital beds per 1000 inhabitants | National | Time-invariant |
| Share of 65 + | Share of population of age 65 or over (%) | Subnational | Time-invariant |
| Cardiovascular death rate | Age-standardized deaths from cardiovascular diseases per 100 k inhabitants | National | Time-invariant |
| Cancer death rate | Age-standardized deaths from cancer per 100 k inhabitants | National | Time-invariant |
| Prevalence of adult obesity | Percentage of adults aged 18 and over with Body Mass Index (BMI) of 30 kg/m2 or higher | National | Time-invariant |
| Week of first COVID death | Week of the year in which first COVID-related death was recorded | Subnational | Time-invariant |
*The subnational level corresponds to the NUTS2 level in Europe and comparable administrative regions in non-European countries (e.g., in the US corresponding to Federal States).