Table 2.
The impact of late 2019 air passenger traffic on the precocity of COVID-19 outbreaks (calendar week of occurrence of 1st and 10th death) [2A: traffic from Chinese airports; 2B: traffic from other airports].
Source: Sub-National COVID-19 Incidence and Determinants Dataset.
| DV: Calendar week of 1st or 10th COVID-19 death | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1st | Wk 1st | Wk 1st | Wk 1st | Wk 10th | Wk 10th | Wk 10th | Wk 10th | |
| 2A: Airline passengers from Chinese airports | ||||||||
| No airport in region | 0.122 (0.398) | − 0.239 (0.391) | 0.343 (0.345) | − 0.044 (0.333) | 2.051* (0.810) | 0.975 (0.764) | 1.903** (0.697) | 1.378* (0.677) |
| Inbound passengers (end 2019) | − 1.130*** (0.269) | − 0.049 (0.332) | − 0.489 (0.307) | − 0.199 (0.297) | − 1.592** (0.536) | 0.864 (0.633) | − 0.112 (0.627) | − 0.439 (0.609) |
| Airport centrality (end 2019) | − 0.442 (0.248) | − 0.346 (0.261) | 0.026 (0.230) | − 0.041 (0.219) | − 0.840 (0.494) | − 0.346 (0.497) | 0.102 (0.454) | − 0.100 (0.434) |
| Population | − 2.730*** (0.608) | − 2.610*** (0.580) | − 2.611*** (0.554) | − 5.127*** (1.172) | − 4.146*** (1.158) | − 4.327*** (1.113) | ||
| Population density (pop/km2) | − 0.280 (0.207) | − 0.201 (0.181) | − 0.304 (0.173) | − 0.640 (0.395) | − 0.659 (0.356) | − 0.812* (0.345) | ||
| Real GDP pc PPP | − 0.413** (0.136) | 0.041 (0.130) | 0.173 (0.131) | − 1.874*** (0.294) | − 0.483 (0.305) | − 0.372 (0.315) | ||
| Hospital beds per 1000 residents | 0.207 (0.249) | 1.847*** (0.493) | ||||||
| Share of 65 + | -0.699*** (0.188) | -1.512*** (0.390) | ||||||
| Cardiovascular death rate | 0.901*** (0.249) | − 0.115 (0.514) | ||||||
| Cancer death rate | 0.313 (0.186) | 1.141** (0.379) | ||||||
| Prevalence of adult obesity | − 0.430 (0.354) | − 2.071** (0.718) | ||||||
| Observations | 453 | 453 | 453 | 453 | 429 | 429 | 429 | 429 |
| R-squared | 0.056 | 0.122 | 0.345 | 0.423 | 0.054 | 0.192 | 0.359 | 0.429 |
| continent fixed effects | No | No | Yes | Yes | No | No | Yes | Yes |
| 2B: Airline passengers from non-Chinese airports | ||||||||
| No airport in region | − 0.203 (0.393) | − 0.307 (0.389) | 0.216 (0.341) | − 0.103 (0.329) | 1.341 (0.793) | 0.947 (0.763) | 1.767* (0.690) | 1.256 (0.667) |
| Inbound passengers (end 2019) | − 1.229*** (0.192) | − 0.439 (0.268) | − 0.406 (0.236) | − 0.421 (0.234) | − 2.435*** (0.381) | − 0.345 (0.530) | − 0.451 (0.480) | 0.138 (0.476) |
| Airport centrality (end 2019) | − 0.120 (0.148) | 0.042 (0.155) | 0.114 (0.138) | 0.139 (0.132) | 0.175 (0.290) | 0.436 (0.297) | 0.382 (0.272) | 0.182 (0.262) |
| Population | − 2.664*** (0.735) | − 3.491*** (0.660) | − 2.773*** (0.679) | − 4.602** (1.422) | − 5.006*** (1.312) | − 7.148*** (1.359) | ||
| Population density (pop/km2) | − 0.285 (0.202) | − 0.167 (0.176) | − 0.266 (0.170) | − 0.661 (0.389) | − 0.624 (0.349) | − 0.864* (0.338) | ||
| Real GDP pc PPP | − 0.353* (0.145) | 0.065 (0.135) | 0.206 (0.135) | − 1.804*** (0.323) | − 0.414 (0.323) | − 0.515 (0.329) | ||
| Hospital beds per 1000 residents | 0.225 (0.247) | 1.946*** (0.490) | ||||||
| Share of 65 + | − 0.675*** (0.187) | − 1.459*** (0.388) | ||||||
| Cardiovascular death rate | 0.834*** (0.247) | − 0.154 (0.510) | ||||||
| Cancer death rate | 0.311 (0.183) | 1.133** (0.373) | ||||||
| Prevalence of adult obesity | − 0.333 (0.357) | − 2.140** (0.720) | ||||||
| Observations | 452 | 452 | 452 | 452 | 428 | 428 | 428 | 428 |
| R-squared | 0.110 | 0.144 | 0.366 | 0.440 | 0.116 | 0.193 | 0.367 | 0.439 |
| continent fixed effects | No | No | Yes | Yes | No | No | Yes | Yes |
OLS regressions without and with continent fixed effects.
Standard errors in parentheses. *p < 0.05, **p < 0.01, ***p < 0.001.