Table 1.

Cumulative incidence and HR of receiving a CKD diagnosis in the next 18 months after baseline among people without a CKD diagnosis at inclusion, stratified by sex at first eGFR measurement <60 ml/min per 1.73 m² in the Stockholm region from 2009 to 2017

Category		18-Month Cumulative Incidence Estimates (95% CI) of CKD Diagnosis		HR (95% CI) of Receiving an Incident CKD Diagnosis in the Next 18 Months
	Number of Individuals	Men	Women	Unadjusted HR Women versus Men	P Value	Adjusted HRd Women versus Men	P Value
Overall	216,519	7.5% (7.4 to 7.7)	3.4% (3.3 to 3.5)	0.43 (0.42 to 0.45)	<0.001	0.48 (0.46 to 0.50)	<0.001
By age categories, yr
<65	43,503	8.9% (8.5 to 9.3)	4.4% (4.1 to 4.6)	0.47 (0.44 to 0.51)	<0.001	0.56 (0.52 to 0.60)	<0.001
65–75	61,416	7.0% (6.7 to 7.3)	3.0% (2.8 to 3.1)	0.41 (0.38 to 0.44)	<0.001	0.49 (0.45 to 0.53)	<0.001
>75	111,600	7.2% (6.9 to 7.4)	3.3% (3.2 to 3.4)	0.43 (0.41 to 0.46)	<0.001	0.42 (0.40 to 0.45)	<0.001
By presence of comorbidities
Hypertension	133,012	8.2% (8.0 to 8.4)	3.8% (3.7 to 4.0)	0.45 (0.43 to 0.47)	<0.001	0.50 (0.48 to 0.53)	<0.001
Diabetes	40,441	10.9% (10.5 to 11.3)	5.8% (5.5 to 6.1)	0.51 (0.47 to 0.55)	<0.001	0.55 (0.51 to 0.60)	<0.001
CVD	76,720	8.7% (8.5 to 9.0)	4.6% (4.3 to 4.8)	0.50 (0.48 to 0.53)	<0.001	0.49 (0.47 to 0.53)	<0.001
By CKD category
G3a	177,212	5.3% (5.1 to 5.5)	2.0% (1.9 to 2.1)	0.36 (0.34 to 0.38)	<0.001	0.42 (0.40 to 0.45)	<0.001
G3b	30,895	15.2% (14.6 to 15.8)	7.1% (6.8 to 7.5)	0.43 (0.40 to 0.46)	<0.001	0.48 (0.44 to 0.51)	<0.001
G4	7029	25.5% (24.0 to 27.0)	18.6% (17.4 to 19.9)	0.66 (0.60 to 0.73)	<0.001	0.67 (0.61 to 0.75)	<0.001
G5ND	1383	32.6% (29.3 to 35.9)	24.5% (21.1 to 28.0)	0.71 (0.58 to 0.87)	0.001	0.73 (0.60 to 0.90)	0.003
Albuminuriaa	20,751	14.0% (13.4 to 14.6)	8.6% (8.0 to 9.2)	0.59 (0.54 to 0.64)	<0.001	0.60 (0.55 to 0.65)	<0.001
Meeting KDIGO criteria for referralb	26,853	18.2% (17.5 to 18.8)	11.5% (11.0 to 12.0)	0.61 (0.57 to 0.65)	<0.001	0.62 (0.58 to 0.66)	<0.001
Meeting regional criteria for referralc	17,022	17.2% (16.4 to 18.0)	11.5% (10.8 to 12.2)	0.65 (0.60 to 0.71)	<0.001	0.63 (0.57 to 0.68)	<0.001
Previously referred	4944	18.1% (16.6 to 19.7)	13.9% (12.5 to 15.2)	0.72 (0.63 to 0.83)	<0.001	0.85 (0.74 to 0.99)	0.03

Risk of receiving a CKD diagnosis is among those without prior diagnosis. Of 227,847 included individuals, 11,328 had a history of CKD diagnosis. CVD, cardiovascular disease; KDIGO, Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes; ND, non–dialysis dependent.

^aAlbuminuria A2 and A3 combined.

^bMeeting KDIGO referral criterion of eGFR<30 ml/min per 1.73 m², presence of albuminuria A3, or CKD and refractory hypertension.

^cMeeting regional referral criterion of age <50 years, albuminuria A3 and age 50–80 years, albumin-creatinine ratio >100 mg/mmol and age >80 years, or eGFR<30 ml/min per 1.73 m² and age >80 years.

^dAdjusted for age at creatinine measurement, albuminuria category (no test, albuminuria A1, A2, A3), eGFR, history of referral, KDIGO criteria for referral, highest educational attainment, hypertension, diabetes, myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, peripheral vascular disease, cerebrovascular disease, dementia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and malignancy.