Table 5.
PoCS Rule Performance for Prediction of PPCS (90 Days)
| |
Derivation cohort (n = 471) |
Validation cohort (n = 602)† |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Post-concussion symptoms, n (%) | 71 | (15.1) | 96 | (15.9) |
| Using threshold ≥2 points 7 days after trauma | % | 95% CI§ | % | 95% CI§ |
| Sensitivity | 91.4 | (84.9-98.0) | 89.6 | (83.5-95.7) |
| Specificity | 53.8 | (48.7-58.9) | 44.7 | (40.3-49.0) |
| Negative predictive value | 97.2 | (94.9-99.4) | 95.8 | (93.2-98.3) |
| Positive predictive value | 26.6 | (21.0-32.1) | 23.5 | (19.2-27.8) |
| Using threshold ≥3 points 7 days after trauma | ||||
| Sensitivity | 87.1 | (79.3-95.0) | 86.5 | (79.6-93.3) |
| Specificity | 66.7 | (61.9-71.5) | 56.1 | (51.8-60.5) |
| Negative predictive value | 96.6 | (94.4-98.8) | 95.6 | (93.3-97.9) |
| Positive predictive value | 32.4 | (25.7-39.1) | 27.2 | (22.2-32.2) |
§
95% Confidence interval.
†
For 10 medium risk patients, data were missing for at least one predictor at follow-up evaluation.
PoCS, Post-Concussion Symptoms Rule; PPCS, persistent post-concussion symptoms; CI, confidence interval.