Table. 2 |.
Predictive performance of the Cox regression models evaluating 10-year ESKD risk in combined 4 cohorts (n=754).
| Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 | Model 5 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variable | HR (95%CI) | P | HR (95%CI) | P | HR (95%CI) | P | HR (95%CI) | P | HR (95%CI) | P |
| eGFR/10 | 0.85 (0.79, 0.92) | 3.8× 10−5 | 0.95 (0.89 1.02) | 0.15. | 0.96 (0.89, 1.03) | 0.27. | 1.00 (0.93, 1.07) | 0.94. | 1.01 (0.95, 1.09) | 0.69 |
| log2ACR | 1.38 (1.29, 1.47) | 3.2× 10−22 | 1.30 (1.22, 1.39) | 4.2× 10−16 | 1.26 (1.18, 1.35) | 3.1× 10−12 | 1.26 (1.18, 1.34) | 8.2× 10−12 | 1.25 (1.17, 1.34) | 6.2× 10−11 |
| HbA1c | 1.23 (1.15, 1.33) | 1.4× 10−8 | 1.27 (1.18, 1.36) | 2.0× 10−10 | 1.27 (1.18, 1.36) | 1.0× 10−10 | 1.28 (1.19, 1.37) | 2.4× 10−11 | 1.27 (1.18, 1.37) | 8.4× 10−11 |
| TNFR1 | 2.15 (1.83, 2.52) | 9.7× 10−21 | 1.76 (1.46, 2.13) | 3.9× 10−9 | 1.58 (1.29, 1.93) | 6.6× 10−6 | ||||
| NBL1 | 2.09 (1.76, 2.48) | 2.6× 10−17 | 1.58 (1.30, 1.92) | 4.4× 10−6 | 1.38 (1.07, 1.78) | 1.3× 10−2 | ||||
| TNFRSF27 | 1.25 (1.06, 1.48) | 9.9× 10−3 | ||||||||
| CCL15 | 1.17 (0.99, 1.39) | 6.4× 10−2 | ||||||||
| IL17F | 1.15 (0.96, 1.39) | 0.13 | ||||||||
| TNFSF15 | 0.97 (0.80, 1.18) | 0.77 | ||||||||
| C-statistics | 0.797 ± 0.012 | 0.825 ± 0.011 | 0.824 ± 0.011 | 0.836 ± 0.011 | 0.840 ± 0.013 | |||||
| P (vs model 1) # | - | 1.5×10−4 | 6.4×10−4 | 1.4×10−5 | ||||||
| P (vs model 2) # | - | - | 0.87 | 1.5×10−2 | ||||||
| P (vs model 4) # | 0.12 | |||||||||
| NRI (vs model 1) ## | - | 0.183 (0.124, 0.242) *** | 0.177 (0.121, 0.234) *** | 0.230 (0.168, 0.292) *** | ||||||
| NRI (vs model 2) ## | - | - | - | 0.076 (0.032, 0.120) *** | ||||||
| NRI (vs model 4) ## | 0.0016 (−0.052, 0.055) | |||||||||
| -2 log likelihood (2LL) | 2567 | 2483 | 2495 | 2462 | 2447 | |||||
| Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) | 2579 | 2497 | 2509 | 2478 | 2471 | |||||
Cox regression models:
Model 1: HbA1c + ACR + baseline eGFR + cohort indicator
Model 2: HbA1c + ACR + baseline eGFR + TNFR1 + cohort indicator
Model 3: HbA1c + ACR + baseline eGFR + NBL1 + cohort indicator
Model 4: HbA1c + ACR + baseline eGFR + TNFR1 + NBL1 + cohort indicator
Model 5: HbA1c + ACR + baseline eGFR + TNFR1 + NBL1 + 4 other KRIS proteins + cohort indicator
Uno’s concordance statistics with two-sided P value.
Risk categories for ESKD during 10 years are defined by < 5.0%, 5.0–9.9%, 10.0–19.9%, and 20% and more.
P for NRI <0.001.
HR, Hazard ratios; CI, Confidence intervals; NRI, Net reclassification improvement; AIC, Akaike information criterion.