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. 2022 Aug 5;33(6):797–807. doi: 10.1097/EDE.0000000000001523

FIGURE 4.

FIGURE 4.

Modeling SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in 20 companies. A, Model fits to qPCR prevalence data of SARS-CoV-2 in each company. Points and error bars represent the observed qPCR positivity and associated 95% confidence intervals. Solid lines and shaded regions represent the posterior median and 95% credible intervals of the predicted prevalence. B, Posterior median (points) and 95% credible intervals (error bars) of the estimated basic reproduction number. C, The distribution of variance of estimated basic reproduction numbers for real data (black) and simulated data (red). D, The distribution of mean of estimated basic reproduction numbers for real data (black) and simulated data (red). E, Quantification of the probability of not observing any positive cases across four biweekly periods when increasing the initial number of infections. Gray horizontal line and shaded areas represent the observed probability and the associated 95% binomial confidence interval.