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. 2022 Oct 5;13:5870. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-33460-0

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© The Author(s) 2022

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 5 — a Veneto and b the rest of Italy estimated daily reported incidences per 100,000 population of A220V, M234I-A376T, Alpha and other virus variants, fitted from observed incidence data assuming a Negative Binomial likelihood (point and 95% binomial CI). Estimates are the mean and 95% CrI (solid line and shaded region), obtained from the 2.5% and 97.5% percentiles of 100 samples of the posterior distributions. c Probability of detecting cases attributable to the A220V, M234I-A376T, Alpha or other virus variants in Veneto and the rest of Italy during the modelling study period. Point and error bars are the mean and 95% CrI obtained from the 2.5% and 97.5% percentiles of 100 samples of the posterior distributions. d Cumulative A220V, M234I-A376T, Alpha, other virus variants and total incidence (%) in Veneto during the modelling study period, under different counterfactual testing scenarios. e Cumulative M234I-A376T variant and total incidence (%) in Veneto during the modelling study period, under different counterfactual testing scenarios. The R₀ of the M234I-A376T variant is multiplied by different scaling factors: 0.8, 1 (baseline), 1.2, 1.4, 1.6. The counterfactual testing scenarios are as follows: molecular follows antigen + is the baseline testing scenario conducted in Veneto; molecular follows antigen – assumes negative antigen tests are followed up with a molecular test; Italy testing assumes the proportion of antigen and molecular tests conducted in Veneto was the same as the rest of Italy over the modelling study period; only antigen testing, 68.9% test sensitivity assumes infections are tested with an antigen test of 68.9% sensitivity (without molecular confirmation); only antigen testing 87.5% test sensitivity assumes infections are tested with an antigen test of 87.5% sensitivity (without molecular confirmation). Point and error bars are the mean and 95% CrI obtained from the 2.5% and 97.5% percentiles of 100 samples of the posterior distributions. CI confidence interval, CrI Credible interval.