. 2022 Oct 5;13:5870. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-33460-0

Table 2.

Mean and 95% CrI parameter estimates, obtained from the 2.5% and 97.5% percentiles of the posterior distributions

Parameter	Mean (95% CrI)	Parameter description
$R_{0 M}$	1.38 (1.3–1.43)	Transmission rate of M234I-A376T variant
$R_{0 A}$	1.45 (1.39–1.51)	Transmission rate of A220V variant
$R_{0 O}$	1.26 (1.23–1.31)	Transmission rate of other variants
$R_{0 A l}$	2.26 (2.16–2.37)	Transmission rate of Alpha variant
$ρ$	92.65% (72.84–99.82)	Probability of performing a diagnostic test if symptomatic
$ω_{1}$	36.56% (33.68–39.16)	Per cent reduction in transmission after control measures (second wave)
$ω_{2}$	51.77% (47.29–56.01)	Per cent reduction in transmission after control measures (third wave)
${I 0}_{M} I t a l y$	105.41 (54.63–167.04)	Initial number of M234I-A376T variant infections
${I 0}_{A} I t a l y$	0.59 (0.06–2.42)	Initial number of A220V variant infections
${I 0}_{O} I t a l y$	88.27 (21.26–193.9)	Initial number of other variant infections
${I 0}_{A l} I t a l y$	88.34 (31.44–180.4)	Initial number of Alpha variant infections
${I 0}_{M} V e n e t o$	24.68 (13.5–37.19)	Initial number of M234I-A376T variant infections
${I 0}_{A} V e n e t o$	0.07 (0.01–0.27)	Initial number of A220V variant infections
${I 0}_{O} V e n e t o$	6.29 (1.44–14.89)	Initial number of other variant infections
${I 0}_{A l} V e n e t o$	21.86 (11.31–34.84)	Initial number of Alpha variant infections
$κ$	0.05 (0.01–0.12)	Overdispersion parameter