Population-level data come from a range of sources in each country, and for most samples it is not possible to determine whether patient was hospitalised or was a community (mild) case |
If different variants are associated with different severities upon infection and if a large fraction of samples used in the estimation of population-level frequency of variants are from community cases, then it is possible that this frequency does not fully represent the frequency in the hospitalised population. In particular, if Omicron variant infection is linked to lower risk of hospitalisation, as previous studies suggest, it is possible that even during periods when community-level frequency of Omicron variant was high, the frequency of Omicron variant in the hospitalised population might have been relatively low. |
Use of country-level data, rather than data on variant frequency in the catchment areas of clinical centres contributing data |
If Omicron variant spreads asynchronously in a country, with some regions reaching high relative frequency faster than others, it is possible that country-level data, rather than data at a finer geographical level, might not reflect Omicron variant frequency in the population from which patients were recruited. |
Delay between infection, onset of symptoms and hospitalisation |
Depending on the data source used to define population-level frequency of variants, if clinical samples were obtained early during the infection, hospitalised cases might only have the same variant composition after a time lag, corresponding to average time from infection, or onset of symptoms, to hospital admission. |