TABLE 2.
5‐year follow‐up health and cost impacts for US adults with alcohol use disorder by simulation scenario
| Outcome | No change | Increase‐1 | Increase‐5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total health and cost impacts per person | QALYs | 3.32 (SD = 0.42) |
3.30 (SD = 0.42) [UI: 3.29, 3.31] |
3.29 (SD = 0.43) [UI: 3.28, 3.31] |
| LYs | 4.90 (SD = 0.58) |
4.90 (SD = 0.58) [UI: 4.89, 4.90] |
4.89 (SD = 0.59) [UI: 4.89, 4.90] |
|
| Hospitalizations a | 0.23 (SD = 0.50) |
0.24 (SD = 0.51) [UI: 0.23, 0.25] |
0.25 (SD = 0.52) [UI: 0.24, 0.27] |
|
| Hospitalization costs a | $4500 (SD = $10 600) |
$4800 (SD = $10 800) [UI: $4600, $4900] |
$4900 (SD = $11 000) [UI: $4700, $5200] |
|
| Incremental health and cost impacts per person | QALYs | NA |
−0.01 [UI: −0.02, 0.00] |
−0.02 [UI: −0.04, −0.01] |
| LYs |
0.00 [UI: −0.01, 0.00] |
−0.01 [UI: −0.01, 0.00] |
||
| Hospitalizations a |
0.01 [UI: 0.00, 0.02] |
0.02 [UI: 0.01, 0.04] |
||
| Hospitalization costs a |
$200 [UI: $100, $400] |
$400 [UI: $200, $600] |
||
| Incremental health and cost impacts for total US adult AUD population | QALYs | NA |
−332 K [UI: −604 K, −104 K] |
−588 K [UI: −1036 K, −198 K] |
| LYs |
−79 K [UI: −201 K, −26 K] |
−141 K [UI: −269 K, −77 K] |
||
| Hospitalizations a |
295 K [UI: 82 K, 501 K] |
606 K [UI: 276 K, 945 K] |
||
| Hospitalization costs a |
$5.4 B [UI: $1.5 B, $9.3 B] |
$10.4 B [UI: $4.6 B, $16.5 B] |
The first panel of the table presents average QALYs, LYs, hospitalizations and hospitalization costs for each scenario over 5 years. The standard deviation in parentheses represents variation among individuals in the model, and the bracketed uncertainty interval shows the range of the mean assuming a small increase in drinking (7.7%) and a large increase in drinking (55.7%). The second panel shows the difference in average outcomes for each increased drinking scenario compared to the no change scenario for the estimated increase in drinking (31.7%) and then in brackets over the range of assumed increases in drinking (7.7 and 55.7%). The third panel extrapolates the second panel to the population of US adult drinkers with life‐time alcohol use disorder (AUD), by multiplying the individual‐level incremental difference by the number of US adult drinkers with life‐time AUD (25.9 million people in 2019). Costs are in 2020 US dollars.
LYs, life years; NA, not available; QALYs, quality‐adjusted life years; SD, standard deviation; UI, uncertainty interval.
Hospitalizations and hospitalization costs reflect counts and costs for the 28 alcohol‐related conditions (Supporting information, Appendix Table A2).