Table 3. Distribution of Amsterdam infections since 2014 in pre-existing and emerging transmission chains.

	Observed*					Predicted†
	Total	In pre-existing chains		In emerging chains		Total	In pre-existing chains		In emerging chains
	(N)	(N)	(%)	(N)	(%)	(N)	(N)	(%)	(N)	(%)
MSM (Dutch)	145	86	59.30%	59	40.70%	254 [202-318]	136 [95-188]	53.6% [44.1–62.4%]	117 [93-147]	46.4% [37.6–55.9%]
MSM (W. Europe, N. America, Oceania)	40	25	62.50%	15	37.50%	68 [49-91]	37 [23-56]	54.8% [40.5–68.1%]	31 [20-43]	45.2% [31.9–59.5%]
MSM (E. & C. Europe)	17	9	52.90%	8	47.10%	29 [18-42]	15 [8-25]	53.6% [34.2–72.7%]	13 [7-21]	46.4% [27.3–65.8%]
MSM (S. America & Caribbean)	53	24	45.30%	29	54.70%	95 [72-126]	50 [33-74]	52.8% [40.3–64.8%]	45 [31-61]	47.2% [35.2–59.7%]
MSM (Other)	42	14	33.30%	28	66.70%	76 [55-103]	37 [22-57]	48.4% [34.4–61.7%]	39 [26-56]	51.6% [38.3–65.6%]
MSM (All)	297	158	53.20%	139	46.80%	523 [427-647]	276 [200-377]	52.8% [44.6–60.7%]	246 [206-300]	47.2% [39.3–55.4%]
Heterosexual (Dutch)	14	2	14.30%	12	85.70%	38 [23-59]	14 [5-29]	37.8% [17.5–58.9%]	23 [13-38]	62.2% [41.1–82.5%]
Heterosexual (Sub-Saharan Africa)	11	4	36.40%	7	63.60%	30 [17-51]	10 [3-24]	34.3% [11.3–58.6%]	20 [11-34]	65.7% [41.4–88.7%]
Heterosexual (S. America & Caribbean)	14	8	57.10%	6	42.90%	35 [20-58]	14 [5-33]	42.9% [18.6–65.8%]	19 [10-34]	57.1% [34.2–81.4%]
Heterosexual (Other)	5	3	60.0%	2	40.0%	13 [6-23]	5 [1-12]	39.1% [9.1–70.0%]	8 [3-15]	60.9% [30.0–90.9%]
Heterosexual (All)	44	17	38.60%	27	61.40%	117 [80-173]	45 [22-83]	38.7% [22.6–54.9%]	71 [49-105]	61.3% [45.1–77.4%]

^*Parts of the actual Amsterdam transmission chains were observed in viral phylogenies of the major subtypes and circulating recombinant forms (B, 01AE, 02AG, C, D, G, A1 or 06 cpx).

^†Predicted based on the Bayesian branching process growth model and accounting for undiagnosed and unsampled individuals.