TABLE 5.
Diagnostic performance of single variable and multivariable predictive models for predicting outcome (survival to hospital discharge) in the study cohort. Unless otherwise specified, variables were assessed at hospital admission
| Model | Variable (S) | Sensitivity | Specificity | PPV | NPV | Accuracy | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single variable models | |||||||
| Johnston et al. 17 | Venous lactate <6 mmol/l | 90% | 30% | 65% | 67% | 65% | 249 |
| Radcliffe et al. 27 | Venous lactate <8 mmol/l | 94% | 20% | 63% | 69% | 64% | 249 |
| Orsini et al. 28 | PCV < 43% | 71% | 63% | 74% | 60% | 68% | 227 |
| Orsini et al. 28 | PCV < 50% | 93% | 33% | 67% | 78% | 69% | 227 |
| Puotunen‐Reinert et al. 29 | HR < 60 bpm | 70% | 67% | 76% | 59% | 68% | 247 |
| Puotunen‐Reinert et al. 29 | HR < 80 bpm | 93% | 25% | 65% | 69% | 66% | 247 |
| Delesalle et al. 30 | Peritoneal lactate <6 mmol/l | 69% | 78% | 78% | 70% | 73% | 86 |
| McCoy et al. 31 | Intraoperative lactate <5 mmol/l | 89% | 39% | 71% | 69% | 70% | 210 |
| Multivariable models | |||||||
| Grulke et al. 25 (Shock Score) | HR, PCV, lactate, BUN | 66% | 56% | 69% | 52% | 62% | 260 |
| Thoefner et al. 32 | Pain, PCV, CRT, temperature | 82% | 43% | 69% | 61% | 66% | 176 |
| Reeves et al. 23 | Age, sex, CRT, PCV, HR | 44% | 82% | 77% | 51% | 60% | 187 |
| Furr et al. 24 (colic severity score) | HR, peritoneal TP, lactate, mm | 92% | 40% | 69% | 78% | 71% | 110 |
Abbreviations: BUN, blood urea nitrogen; CRT, capillary refill time; HR, heart rate; mm, mucous membrane appearance; N, number of cases included; NPV, negative predictive value; PCV, packed cell volume; PPV, positive predictive value.