Table 2. Predictive efficacy of each score for 90-day prognosis by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis in the validation set.
| Time (cases) | Variable | AUC (95% CI) | St | Cutoff value | Sensitivity | Specificity | z statistic (p-value)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline (n=671) | CTP | 0.600 (0.561–0.637) | 0.022 | 11 | 0.824 | 0.341 | 5.435 (p<0.001) |
| CLIF-SOFA | 0.649 (0.611–0.685) | 0.022 | 8 | 0.662 | 0.578 | 4.170 (p<0.001) | |
| CLIF-OF | 0.625 (0.587–0.662) | 0.023 | 10 | 0.426 | 0.776 | 4.643 (p<0.001) | |
| MELD | 0.709 (0.673–0.743) | 0.022 | 25 | 0.620 | 0.721 | 0.779 (p=0.436) | |
| MELD-Na | 0.713 (0.677–0.747) | 0.021 | 28 | 0.620 | 0.743 | 0.585 (p=0.559) | |
| WASP-ACLF | 0.724 (0.689–0.758) | 0.020 | 4 | 0.689 | 0.758 | NA | |
| Third day (n=662) | CTP | 0.626 (0.588–0.663) | 0.022 | 11 | 0.826 | 0.369 | 6.521 (p<0.001) |
| CLIF-SOFA | 0.695 (0.658–0.730) | 0.021 | 8 | 0.710 | 0.571 | 4.874 (p<0.001) | |
| CLIF-OF | 0.694 (0.657–0.729) | 0.021 | 10 | 0.473 | 0.807 | 4.316 (p<0.001) | |
| MELD | 0.739 (0.704–0.772) | 0.022 | 25 | 0.652 | 0.741 | 2.036 (p=0.042) | |
| MELD-Na | 0.727 (0.691–0.761) | 0.022 | 24 | 0.797 | 0.560 | 2.760 (p=0.006) | |
| WASP-ACLF | 0.776 (0.743–0.808) | 0.019 | 4 | 0.749 | 0.706 | NA | |
| First week (n=637) | CTP | 0.643 (0.604–0.680) | 0.022 | 11 | 0.824 | 0.440 | 6.124 (p<0.001) |
| CLIF-SOFA | 0.713 (0.676–0.748) | 0.021 | 8 | 0.731 | 0.576 | 4.142 (p<0.001) | |
| CLIF-OF | 0.711 (0.674–0.746) | 0.021 | 9 | 0.753 | 0.582 | 3.518 (p<0.001) | |
| MELD | 0.725 (0.688–0.759) | 0.023 | 23 | 0.692 | 0.679 | 2.564 (p=0.010) | |
| MELD-Na | 0.733 (0.697–0.767) | 0.022 | 24 | 0.802 | 0.578 | 2.317 (p=0.021) | |
| WASP-ACLF | 0.780 (0.746–0.812) | 0.019 | 4 | 0.731 | 0.697 | NA | |
| Second week (n=610) | CTP | 0.672 (0.634–0.710) | 0.023 | 11 | 0.768 | 0.534 | 5.112 (p<0.001) |
| CLIF-SOFA | 0.730 (0.693–0.765) | 0.021 | 8 | 0.690 | 0.655 | 4.003 (p<0.001) | |
| CLIF-OF | 0.732 (0.695–0.766) | 0.022 | 9 | 0.743 | 0.620 | 3.613 (p<0.001) | |
| MELD | 0.754 (0.717–0.787) | 0.024 | 22 | 0.742 | 0.695 | 2.057 (p=0.040) | |
| MELD-Na | 0.746 (0.710–0.780) | 0.023 | 23 | 0.794 | 0.600 | 2.447 (p=0.014) | |
| WASP-ACLF | 0.799 (0.765–0.830) | 0.020 | 4 | 0.723 | 0.728 | NA |
ACLF, acute-on-chronic liver failure; CLIF-OF, chronic liver failure consortium organ function; CLIF-SOFA, chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment; CTP, Child-Turcotte-Pugh; MELD, model for end-stage liver disease; WASP-ACLF, widely applicable and simple prognostic score of ACLF.