Fig. 2.

Model fit and prediction to wastewater data covering the second wave of pandemic. (A) Best fit to virus concentration data in wastewater from October 2 to December 18, 2020 (dashed grey line), and model prediction to January 25, 2021. Red dots are the measured viral load in wastewater and blue curve is the modeling result. (B) Model estimation of the true number of COVID-19 cases (blue curve) and clinically reported cases (red curve). The blue and red dashed lines are dates when the two curves peak, and ΔT_lead is the time difference between the two peaks. (C) Correlation between simulation cases and reported cases. Best fit parameters: λ = 9.66 × 10⁻⁸ day⁻¹ person⁻¹, α = 249 g, γ = 0.08, and E(0) = 11 people.