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. 2022 Oct 8;857:159326. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159326

Fig. 3.

Fig. 3

Incorporating the effect of temporal variation of wastewater temperature in the SEIR-V model. (A) Best fit to viral concentration data in wastewater from October 2 to December 18, 2020 (dashed grey line), and model prediction to January 25, 2021. Red dots are the measured viral load in wastewater and blue curve is the modeling result. (B) Comparison of the SEIR-V models with and without incorporating temperature effect. Top left: corrected Akaike information criterion (AICc) values, the statistically significant AICc difference is 9.2; Top right: initial populations exposed to SARS-CoV-2; Bottom left: wastewater lead time difference at peak; Bottom right: fold of difference between the number of predicted cases and clinically reported cases. The AIC/AICc are calculated assuming normal distribution of residuals with mean zero using the formulasAIC=nlogssen+2k andAICc=AIC+2kk+1nk1, where n is the number of data used for fitting, k is the number of fitting parameter and the SSE is calculated based on the data used for fitting. Light blue represents the model without including temperate effect, while blue represents the model with temperature effect. Best fit parameters when incorporating temperature: λ = 9.06 × 10−8 day−1 person−1, α = 360 g,and E(0) = 1182 people.