Table 6.
Negative and positive predictive values for the Elastic net LR model and outcome of in-hospital mortality for patients over 50.
| Performance goal | Patients above/below threshold | Sensitivity (95% CI) | Specificity (95% CI) | PPV (95% CI) | NPV (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Training | Maximizing NPV | 352/3 | 1 (0.95,1) | 0.01 (0,0.03) | 0.22 (0.18,0.27) | 1 (0.29,1) |
| Maximizing PPV | 5/350 | 0.04 (0.01,0.11) | 0.99 (0.97,1) | 0.6 (0.15,0.95) | 0.78 (0.74,0.82) | |
| Internal validation | Maximizing NPV | 76/13 | 1 (0.83,1) | 0.19 (0.1,0.3) | 0.26 (0.17,0.38) | 1 (0.75,1) |
| Maximizing PPV | 1/88 | 0.05 (0,0.25) | 1 (0.95,1) | 1 (0.03,1) | 0.78 (0.68,0.86) | |
| External validation | Maximizing NPV | 192/55 | 0.94 (0.89,0.97) | 0.47 (0.37,0.58) | 0.73 (0.67,0.8) | 0.84 (0.71,0.92) |
| Maximizing PPV | 56/191 | 0.33 (0.26,0.41) | 0.94 (0.87,0.98) | 0.89 (0.78,0.96) | 0.48 (0.4,0.55) |