Table 3.

Multivariate Linear Model Estimate of PCP Effect on VHA Costs, Pooled Data, Fiscal Years 2016–2019 (N = 23,634,549)

		95% confidence interval
Variable	Parameter estimate	Lower bound	Upper bound	p value|
Intercept	−21,407.00	−21,510.9	−21,303.1	<.0001
No PCP	3,273.64	3,249.7	3,297.5	<.0001
Age in years	−116.81	−118.5	−115.1	<.0001
Age ≥ 35 and < 45	548.23	509.9	586.6	<.0001
Age ≥ 45 and < 55	1,780.00	1,731.9	1,828.1	<.0001
Age ≥ 55 and < 65	2,840.15	2,779.0	2,901.3	<.0001
Age ≥ 65 and < 75	4,088.72	4,013.1	4,164.3	<.0001
Age ≥ 75	6,356.02	6,258.5	6,453.5	<.0001
Gender (female)	−894.01	−920.2	−867.8	<.0001
Marital status (married)	−850.83	−865.6	−836.0	<.0001
Racial status (White)	−975.80	−995.3	−956.3	<.0001
Racial status (Black)	−1,296.39	−1,322.2	−1,270.6	<.0001
Disability rating (%)	−9.35	−9.7	−8.9	<.0001
Disability rating 70%+	388.75	354.9	422.6	<.0001
No private health insurance	577.47	557.2	597.7	<.0001
Enrolled in Medicare	700.69	676.6	724.8	<.0001
Drive time to closest VHA PCP (min)	−5.26	−5.7	−4.8	<.0001
CPM risk score	385.26	385.1	385.4	<.0001
FY 2017	201.78	182.1	221.5	<.0001
FY 2018	806.96	787.2	826.7	<.0001
FY 2019	1,289.17	1,269.3	1,309.0	<.0001

Notes: PCP, enrolled with a Veterans Health Administration primary care provider. The fixed effects of the 140 hospitals are not shown. Reference groups were age < 35, racial status (other), and FY 2016