Table 1.

Key model parameters.

Parameter description	Value	Source
Maximum level of social distancing (SDmax) by age (younger/older than 70)	(0.3/0.5)	[28]
Minimum level of social distancing (SDmin) by age (younger/older than 70)	(0.1/0.2)	[46]
Threshold for triggering additional restrictions on social interactions	more than 10 new hospitalizations per 100,000 individuals per week	[36,47]
Threshold for releasing restrictions on social interactions	fewer than 5 new hospitalizations per 100,000 individuals per week	[36,47]
Vaccination rate defined as number of people initiating series per day	5000	Assumed
Vaccine efficacy on susceptibility defined as reduction of the probability to acquire infection upon exposure by variant (Alpha, Delta)	(0.91, 0.82)	[5,48]
Vaccine efficacy on symptomatology defined as reduction in the probability to develop symptoms upon infection by variant (Alpha, Delta)	(0.34, 0.34)	[5]
Vaccine efficacy on hospitalization defined as reduction in the risk of hospitalization for symptomatic infections by variant (Alpha, Delta)	(0.67, 0.67)	[49]
Vaccine efficacy on infectiousness defined as reduction in the probability to transmit different variants (Alpha, Delta) upon infection	(0, 0)	Assumed
Relative transmissibility of variants (Alpha, Delta) compared to the original variant	(1.5, 2.4)	[50–53]
Relative severity of variants (Alpha, Delta) compared to the original variant	(1.5, 1.5)	[4,54,55]
Proportion of infections which become symptomatic by age group (0–19, 20–49, 50–69, 70+)	(0.25, 0.33, 0.55, 0.70)	[56]
Proportion of symptomatic infections which are mild and require no hospitalizations by age group (0–19, 20–49, 50–69, 70+)	(0.988–0.996, 0.96–0.995, 0.87–0.96, 0.62–0.87)	Calibrated
Relative susceptibility by age group (younger/older than 20)	(0.5/1)	[56]