Table 2.
Estimated Cumulative Impact of Poliovirus Immunizations Interventions for 1988 and 2021 With Different Analytical Framing Assumptions
| Estimated Totals from Modeling for Specific Countries and Scenarios | Paralytic Cases | Paralytic Cases Prevented vs Global RC |
|---|---|---|
| All countries | ||
| Global RC | 840 793 | … |
| No vaccine | 24 854 075 | 24 013 282 |
| No GPEI, flat RI coverage, fixed at 1988 estimate | 6 784 532 | 5 943 739 |
| No GPEI, increasing RI coverage, to 50% of 2019 estimate | 5 054 183 | 4 213 389 |
| No GPEI, increasing RI coverage, WHO annual estimates | 3 361 430 | 2 520 637 |
| GPEI countries | ||
| Global RC | 790 642 | … |
| No vaccine | 18 945 465 | 18 154 823 |
| No GPEI, flat RI coverage, fixed at 1988 estimate | 6 208 673 | 5 418 031 |
| No GPEI, increasing RI coverage, to 50% of 2019 estimate | 4 614 741 | 3 824 099 |
| No GPEI, increasing RI coverage, WHO annual estimates | 3 149 599 | 2 358 957 |
Abbreviations: GPEI, Global Polio Eradication Initiative; RC, reference case; RI, routine immunization; WHO, World Health Organization.