Table 2.
Key assumptions of measles and rubella transmission models
| Model structure | Seasonality | Age and spatial mixing patterns | Measles case fatality rate | Risk of congenital rubella syndrome* | Vaccine effectiveness | Case importation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DynaMICE national measles model | Mechanistic, deterministic, age-stratified, MSIRV† | Yes | Age-dependent per POLYMOD study17 (Great Britain) | Country-specific18 | NA | First dose 85% effective when given at 9 months, 95% effective when given at 12 months; second dose 98% | No |
| PSU national measles model | Semi-mechanistic, stochastic MSIR† fitted to observed cases with Kalman filter | No | NA | Country-specific | NA | First dose 84% at 9 months, 93% at 12 months; second dose 99%; SIAs 99% | Random variation in annual attack rate |
| IDM measles subnational model | Agent-based stochastic metapopulation MSEIR† for each local government area of Nigeria | Yes | Age-dependence fit to incidence data; spatial mixing | 4% in children aged <5 years, 2% in children aged ≥5 years | NA | Dependence on age and maternal protection status fit to meta-analysis;19 First dose 90% at mean age 9 months (SD 1); second dose 95% at mean age 12 months (SD 1·5); SIAs 95% | Stochastic importation of single cases at constant average rate |
| JHU national rubella model | Mechanistic, discrete time, stochastic, age-stratified, MSIRV† | Yes | Age-dependent (1 year age groups)20 | NA | 0·59 | First dose is age-specific, increasing from 74% at age 6 months to 97% at age 12 months; second dose 97%; SIAs 97% | Stochastic importation of cases scaled by population size |
| PHE national rubella model | Mechanistic, continuous time, deterministic, age-stratified, MSEIRV† | No | Age-dependent (<13 years and ≥13 years age groups) | NA | 0·65 | All doses 95% | 0·001% of country population susceptible to rubella infection |
DynaMICE=Dynamic Measles Immunisation Calculation Engine. NA=not applicable. PSU=Pennsylvania State University. SIA=supplemental immunisation activities. IDM=Institute for Disease Modeling. JHU=Johns Hopkins University. PHE=Public Health England.
Probability of a pregnant woman infected with rubella in the first 16 weeks of pregnancy giving live birth to a child with congenital rubella syndrome.
Each model had a different model structure whereby the population was divided into a combination of epidemiological classifications of M (maternally immune), S (susceptible), E (exposed; infected but not yet infectious), I (infected), R (recovered; immune via natural infection), and V (vaccinated; immune via successful vaccination).