Table 2.
Summary of predictive performance parameters presented by the included studies.
| Predictive score/factor | Studies (ref) | Assessed within: | AUC | Cut-off | Sens (%) | Spec (%) | PPV (%) | NPV (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Computed Tomography Severity Index (CTSI) | 3 (27–29) | 48 h | 0.64–0.90 | score ≥ 4 | 50–81 | 78–86 | 61–71 | 98–99 |
| Pediatric JPN score | 2 (31, 32) | 48 h | score ≥ 3 | 80–83 | 96–98 | 62–77 | 50–90 | |
| Lipase + WBC + albumin | 1 (17) | 24 h | 0.76–0.77 | best performance | 68 | 71 | ||
| Hemoglobin <13 g/dL and/or BUN ≥12.5 mg/dL | 1 (33) | 24 h | 1 or both present | 81.5 | 64.1 | 89.3 | ||
| Lipase >7xULN and Ca trough ≤ 2.15 mmol/L | 1 (36) | 48 h | both present | 46 | 89 | 65 | 79 | |
| Lipase | 4 | 24 h | 0.61–0.80 | ≥ 7xULN | 82–94 | 23–56 | ||
| (17, 34–36) | ||||||||
| 1 (36) | 48 h | 50% decrease on day 2 | 73 | 54 | 46 | 79 | ||
| ≥ 7xULN + 50% decrease day 2 | 67 | 79 | ||||||
| Amylase | 1 (34) | 24 h | 0.70 | ≥3xULN | 62.5 | 80.0 | ||
| Hemoglobin | 1 (34) | 24 h | 0.70 | ≥ 143 g/L | 85.7 | 43.5 | ||
| WBC | 2 (17, 37) | 24 h | 0.59–0.63 | |||||
| 1 (38) | 48 h | 0.79 | >17 G/L | 68.2 | 81.1 | 68.2 | 81.1 | |
| CRP | 2 | 24 h | 0.73–0.39 | >27.5 mg/L | 68.2 | 81.1 | ||
| (37, 39) | ||||||||
| 1 (38) | 48 h | 0.92 | >108 mg/L | 91.0 | 83.8 | |||
| Albumin | 2 (17, 37) | 24 h | 0.71–0.80 | |||||
| 2 | 48 h | 0.85 | <34 g/L | 91.0 | 75.7 | 69.0 | 93.3 | |
| (38, 40) | ||||||||
| <28 g/L | 41.0 | 90.4 | 80.0 | 62.2 | ||||
| BUN | 2 | 24 h | 0.73–0.75 | ≥13 mg/dL | 63–68 | 73–81 | 52–72 | 84–91 |
| (16, 18) | ||||||||
| 1 (40) | 48 h | ≥20 mg/dL | 48.8 | 85.0 | 63.6 | 75.5 | ||
| Calcium | 2 (36, 40) | 48 h | <2.1 mmol/L | 47.6 | 81.1 | 60.6 | 71.7 | |
| trough ≤ 2.15 mmol/L | 59 | 81 | 60 | 80 | ||||
| Dyspnoea | 1 (40) | 48 h | present | 23.5 | 98.4 | 85.7 | 76.5 | |
| Pleural effusion | 1 (40) | 48 h | present | 49.0 | 95.3 | 80.6 | 82.5 |
The left column indicates the factor, combination of factors or group of factors examined. The second column presents the number of enrolled studies presenting data on said factor, with their references. When data is not presented as a single value, but instead with a dash, that indicates the range of values observed by the available studies. Predictive values indicating good performance (using an arbitrary threshold of 0.85) appear in bold to ease overview. AUC, area under the curve; BUN, blood urea nitrogen; CRP, C-reactive protein; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value; Sens, sensitivity; Spec, specificity; ULN, upper limit of normal; WBC, white blood cell count.